Sport Picks
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
Colombia
Copa Colombia Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar 
Match Events
56'
56'
Martinez M.
57'
57'
Pons L.
63'
63'
Martinez M.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
30%
42%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bucaramanga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Bucaramanga come out ahead of Alianza on wins alone.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Bucaramanga taking it.
- Bucaramanga arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Bucaramanga, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Bucaramanga here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Alianza Clean Sheet 12%
Bucaramanga Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alianza | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 11 |
| Losses | 13 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
2:3
May 24, 2026 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Primera A
Bucaramanga vs Alianza
5:0
Sep 6, 2025 Primera A
Bucaramanga vs Alianza
3:1
Aug 3, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alianza Compare
Top Goalscorer Martinez M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Bucaramanga Compare
Top Goalscorer Pons L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alianza 11 / 100
Bucaramanga 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alianza Bucaramanga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bucaramanga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.
Alianza found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).
Bucaramanga has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Solid form: Alianza remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Alianza VS Bucaramanga
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Alianza
(Home) 19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
16 Sept
Chico
1 : 2 Alianza
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Alianza
03 Sept
America De Cali
3 : 0 Alianza
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 3
Bucaramanga
(Away) 20 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 0 Inter Bogotá
18 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 2 Ind. Medellin
13 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 3 Bucaramanga
31 Aug
Dep. Cali
1 : 1 Bucaramanga
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 3 Bucaramanga
31 Aug
Dep. Cali
1 : 1 Bucaramanga
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Bucaramanga
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
25 Jul
Millonarios
0 : 1 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dep. Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors de Cali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8:7 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:13 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millonarios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14:5 | 10 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:2 | 9 |
| 3 | Chico | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:3 | 5 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:7 | 2 |
| 5 | Atletico F.C. | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:16 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Medellin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 2 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:3 | 5 |
| 3 | Leones | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 4 | Cucuta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3:5 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dep. Pereira | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 7 |
| 3 | Aguilas Doradas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 4 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 5 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)
