Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aljustrelense vs Lagoa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Simoes P.
(Penalty)
66' Event
Lagrange B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Aljustrelense
30%
Draws
47%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagoa lately — more wins on the board than Aljustrelense.
  • Win probability leans Lagoa's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Aljustrelense Clean Sheet 17%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aljustrelense Lagoa
Matches Played 24 30
Wins 6 12
Draws 3 7
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 0.71 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Aljustrelense vs Lagoa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aljustrelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lagrange B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Lagoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aljustrelense 10 / 100
Lagoa 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aljustrelense Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagoa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagoa has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Aljustrelense's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 24 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Aljustrelense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aljustrelense VS Lagoa
0.5 Goals Scored 2.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aljustrelense

(Home)
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
10 Apr
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 0
Aljustrelense
03 Apr
Aljustrelense
2 : 1
Moura AC
14 Mar
Aljustrelense
1 : 2
Louletano
07 Mar
Amora
5 : 0
Aljustrelense
Page 1 of 5

Lagoa

(Away)
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2
Lagoa
22 Mar
Lagoa
0 : 0
Malveira
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Imortal 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Serpa 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
3 Juv. Evora 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
4 Sintrense 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
5 Portel 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
6 Lagoa 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
7 Aljustrelense 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
8 Real SC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Amora 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Lajense 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Santa Clara B 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 GD Alcochetense 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
13 Vitoria Setubal 1 0 0 1 2:4 0
14 1º Dezembro 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)