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Aljustrelense vs Lagoa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Simoes P.
(Penalty)
66' Event
Lagrange B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aljustrelense
30%
Draws
39%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagoa lately — more wins on the board than Aljustrelense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Aljustrelense Clean Sheet 15%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aljustrelense Lagoa
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 0.79 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Aljustrelense vs Lagoa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aljustrelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lagrange B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Lagoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aljustrelense 35 / 100
Lagoa 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aljustrelense Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagoa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagoa has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Aljustrelense scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Aljustrelense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aljustrelense VS Lagoa
0.71 Goals Scored 1.5
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.25
86% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 75%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aljustrelense

(Home)
27 Sept
Aljustrelense
0 : 2
GD Alcochetense
20 Sept
AD Limianos
3 : 0
Aljustrelense
13 Sept
Portel
1 : 1
Aljustrelense
30 Aug
Ferreiras
0 : 3
Aljustrelense
23 Aug
Sintrense
4 : 0
Aljustrelense
Page 1 of 6

Lagoa

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sintrense 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
2 Imortal 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Amora 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
4 Serpa 4 1 3 0 6:4 6
5 Real SC 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
6 Juv. Evora 4 1 2 1 6:7 5
7 Lagoa 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
8 GD Alcochetense 4 1 2 1 7:6 5
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
10 Portel 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
11 Lajense 4 1 1 2 7:7 4
12 1º Dezembro 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
13 Aljustrelense 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
14 Santa Clara B 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)