Sport Picks
Alloa vs Airdrieonians
Scotland
Challenge Cup 2025/2026 Recreation Park, Alloa 
Match Events
18'
18'
Cooper C.
Assist: Xavier-Jones T.
24'
24'
Xavier-Jones T.
Assist: Gallagher G.
34'
34'
O'Donnell C.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-3, with Airdrieonians advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
28%
22%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Alloa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Alloa carry the better recent record into this one.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on Alloa taking it.
- Alloa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Airdrieonians, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Alloa Clean Sheet 68%
Airdrieonians Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alloa | Airdrieonians |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.63 | 1.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 9, 2026 Championship
Airdrieonians vs Alloa
1:2
May 5, 2026 Championship
Alloa vs Airdrieonians
1:0
Dec 9, 2025 Challenge Cup
Alloa vs Airdrieonians
2:3
Jul 26, 2025 League Cup
Airdrieonians vs Alloa
2:3
Apr 1, 2023 League One
Alloa vs Airdrieonians
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alloa Compare
Top Goalscorer O'Donnell C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Buchanan S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Airdrieonians Compare
Top Goalscorer Cooper C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Xavier-Jones T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alloa 59 / 100
Airdrieonians 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alloa Airdrieonians
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ALL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Airdrieonians conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
Alloa's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Alloa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alloa VS Airdrieonians
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Alloa
(Home) 18 Jul
Alloa
3 : 2 Stranraer
14 Jul
Edinburgh City
2 : 0 Alloa
30 Jun
Alloa
0 : 3 Livingston
23 Jun
Alloa
5 : 0 Civil Service Strollers
16 May
Stenhousemuir
0 : 1 Alloa
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Alloa
3 : 2 Stranraer
30 Jun
Alloa
0 : 3 Livingston
23 Jun
Alloa
5 : 0 Civil Service Strollers
13 May
Alloa
1 : 3 Stenhousemuir
05 May
Alloa
1 : 0 Airdrieonians
Page 1 of 3
Airdrieonians
(Away) 18 Jul
Airdrieonians
3 : 0 Annan
14 Jul
Clyde
1 : 0 Airdrieonians
11 Jul
Dundee FC
4 : 2 Airdrieonians
07 Jul
Airdrieonians
1 : 2 Falkirk
04 Jul
Ayr
2 : 1 Airdrieonians
Page 1 of 6
14 Jul
Clyde
1 : 0 Airdrieonians
11 Jul
Dundee FC
4 : 2 Airdrieonians
04 Jul
Ayr
2 : 1 Airdrieonians
05 May
Alloa
1 : 0 Airdrieonians
01 May
Morton
1 : 1 Airdrieonians
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Arbroath3
Kelty Hearts2
Elgin City2
East Fife3
Alloa2
Airdrieonians3
Montrose2
Spartans1
Queen's Park2
Clyde1
Forfar Athletic2
Edinburgh City1
Raith5
Hamilton2
Queen of the South4
Dunfermline3
Hearts B0
St Johnstone1
Ross County4
Celtic B0
Ayr2
Peterhead1
East Kilbride1
Stranraer4
Cove Rangers1
Partick2
Dumbarton0
Inverness9
Stirling3
Morton2
Stenhousemuir2
Annan0
1/8-finals
Arbroath3
East Fife0
Airdrieonians3
Montrose1
Queen's Park2
Forfar Athletic0
Raith1
Queen of the South0
St Johnstone2
Ross County0
Ayr4
Stranraer1
Partick3
Inverness4
Stirling1
Stenhousemuir2
Quarter-finals
Arbroath2
Airdrieonians3
Queen's Park1
Raith2
St Johnstone3
Ayr4
Inverness1
Stenhousemuir0
Semi-finals
Airdrieonians1
Raith2
Ayr1
Inverness2
Final
Raith4
Inverness1