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Alloa vs Hamilton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League One Recreation Park, Alloa
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Ryan A.
27'
O'Donnell C.
28' Event
McKinstry S.

AI Match Summary

The League One game between Alloa and Hamilton finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hamilton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Alloa
30%
Draws
51%
Hamilton
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hamilton come out ahead of Alloa on wins alone.
  • Model gives Hamilton a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Hamilton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Alloa Clean Sheet 11%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alloa Hamilton
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 12 19
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.4 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 League One
Alloa vs Hamilton
0:3
Aug 8, 2026 League One
Hamilton vs Alloa
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 League One
Hamilton vs Alloa
1:0
Feb 21, 2026 League One
Alloa vs Hamilton
3:0
Dec 20, 2025 League One
Hamilton vs Alloa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alloa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Ryan A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader McKinstry S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alloa 10 / 100
Hamilton 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alloa Hamilton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alloa found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Hamilton has conceded goals in 48% of their last 27 outings.

Alloa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alloa VS Hamilton
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alloa

(Home)
03 Nov
Clydebank FC
1 : 0
Alloa
31 Oct
Peterhead
2 : 1
Alloa
24 Oct
Alloa
0 : 1
Queen of the South
17 Oct
East Fife
0 : 3
Alloa
13 Oct
Annan
0 : 0
Alloa
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Hamilton

(Away)
03 Nov
Hamilton
2 : 1
Raith
31 Oct
Hamilton
1 : 1
Montrose
27 Oct
Ross County
1 : 1
Hamilton
24 Oct
Hamilton
2 : 1
East Fife
17 Oct
Airdrieonians
1 : 2
Hamilton
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ross County 13 11 2 0 45:8 35
2 Hamilton 13 10 3 0 27:6 33
3 Montrose 13 6 2 5 18:21 20
4 East Kilbride 12 5 3 4 21:17 18
5 Peterhead 13 4 1 8 11:21 13
6 Airdrieonians 13 3 4 6 10:20 13
7 Queen of the South 13 4 1 8 13:36 13
8 Alloa 13 3 3 7 13:16 12
9 East Fife 13 2 6 5 11:16 12
10 Cove Rangers 12 2 3 7 10:18 9
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)