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Alloa vs Montrose - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League One Recreation Park, Alloa
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Glasgow K.
42' Event
Rankin L.
Assist: Taggart S.
46'
Sub
Byrne S. In: Craig H.
Out: Byrne S.

AI Match Summary

The League One game between Alloa and Montrose finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alloa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Alloa
15%
Draws
51%
Montrose
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montrose

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Montrose's 1.57 goals per match outpaces what Alloa have produced (1.45).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Alloa Clean Sheet 12%
Montrose Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alloa Montrose
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 13
Draws 5 3
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.45 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 League One
Alloa vs Montrose
3:0
Mar 14, 2026 League One
Montrose vs Alloa
5:4
Jan 20, 2026 League One
Alloa vs Montrose
4:1
Nov 8, 2025 League One
Montrose vs Alloa
0:4
Sep 13, 2025 League One
Alloa vs Montrose
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alloa Compare

Top Goalscorer Glasgow K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rankin L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Montrose Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alloa 29 / 100
Montrose 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alloa Montrose

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alloa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Alloa scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Montrose let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Montrose's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Alloa VS Montrose
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alloa

(Home)
03 Oct
Ross County
4 : 1
Alloa
26 Sept
Alloa
2 : 2
Gala Fairydean Rovers
22 Sept
Alloa
4 : 1
Hibernian B
19 Sept
Alloa
1 : 2
East Kilbride
12 Sept
Airdrieonians
1 : 0
Alloa
Page 1 of 6

Montrose

(Away)
03 Oct
Airdrieonians
1 : 0
Montrose
26 Sept
Kelty Hearts
2 : 1
Montrose
22 Sept
Formartine Utd
3 : 2
Montrose
19 Sept
East Fife
1 : 2
Montrose
12 Sept
Montrose
2 : 1
Cove Rangers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ross County 8 7 1 0 26:5 22
2 Hamilton 8 7 1 0 18:2 22
3 East Kilbride 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
4 Montrose 9 5 0 4 13:14 15
5 Airdrieonians 9 3 3 3 7:11 12
6 Alloa 9 2 3 4 9:10 9
7 East Fife 9 1 5 3 7:10 8
8 Peterhead 9 2 1 6 7:16 7
9 Queen of the South 9 2 1 6 10:27 7
10 Cove Rangers 9 1 2 6 8:15 5
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)