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Almeria vs Malaga

World World

Club Friendly 2025 Marbella Football Center, Málaga
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Nino A.
20' Event
Larrubia D.
89' Event
Melamed N.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Almeria and Malaga finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malaga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Almeria
20%
Draws
11%
Malaga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Almeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Malaga haven't matched Almeria's recent run of results.
  • Almeria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Almeria Clean Sheet 68%
Malaga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almeria Malaga
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 3 13
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.66 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Malaga
1:2
Jun 14, 2026 LaLiga2
Malaga vs Almeria
0:0
Apr 19, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Malaga
3:2
Dec 21, 2025 LaLiga2
Malaga vs Almeria
2:1
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Almeria vs Malaga
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Melamed N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Malaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Nino A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Larrubia D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almeria 95 / 100
Malaga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almeria Malaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Almeria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Almeria scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Malaga conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Almeria went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Almeria VS Malaga
2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Almeria

(Home)
27 Sept
Mallorca
0 : 1
Almeria
20 Sept
Almeria
2 : 0
Celta Vigo B
12 Sept
Cordoba
0 : 2
Almeria
06 Sept
Almeria
3 : 2
Cadiz
29 Aug
Sabadell
1 : 0
Almeria
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Malaga

(Away)
20 Sept
Getafe
1 : 0
Malaga
17 Sept
Malaga
1 : 3
Villarreal
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1
Malaga
06 Sept
Malaga
0 : 0
Levante
30 Aug
Real Madrid
4 : 0
Malaga
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