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Alsterbruder vs Hamburger III - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

82' Event
Kollotzek J.

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025 game between Alsterbruder and Hamburger III finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alsterbruder.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Alsterbruder
15%
Draws
0%
Hamburger III
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alsterbruder

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alsterbruder come out ahead of Hamburger III on wins alone.
  • Model gives Alsterbruder a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Alsterbruder Clean Sheet 10%
Hamburger III Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alsterbruder Hamburger III
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 3
Draws 4 2
Losses 20 25
Goals Scored 1.17 1.33
Goals Conceded 2.6 3.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 8, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
Alsterbruder vs Hamburger III
1:0
Aug 16, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
Hamburger III vs Alsterbruder
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alsterbruder Compare

Top Goalscorer Kollotzek J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Hamburger III Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alsterbruder 83 / 100
Hamburger III 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alsterbruder Hamburger III

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alsterbruder Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamburger III has conceded goals in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Hamburger III's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Alsterbruder's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Alsterbruder VS Hamburger III
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2.38 Goals Conceded 4.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Alsterbruder

(Home)
16 May
TSV Concordia
2 : 5
Alsterbruder
10 May
Alsterbruder
1 : 4
Paloma
25 Apr
Suderelbe
3 : 2
Alsterbruder
13 Apr
Alsterbruder
1 : 2
Sasel
04 Apr
Eimsbutteler
4 : 2
Alsterbruder
Page 1 of 6

Hamburger III

(Away)
16 May
Hamburger III
0 : 1
HEBC Hamburg
10 May
Altona
7 : 0
Hamburger III
30 Apr
TSV Buchholz 08
4 : 2
Hamburger III
26 Apr
Turkiye Wilhelmsburg
9 : 0
Hamburger III
17 Apr
Hamburger III
1 : 4
Eimsbutteler
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altona 34 25 7 2 99:30 82
2 Dassendorf 34 26 4 4 98:32 82
3 Eimsbutteler 34 22 4 8 96:48 70
4 Paloma 34 22 4 8 84:54 70
5 ETSV Hamburg 34 20 3 11 96:50 63
6 Niendorfer TSV 34 18 7 9 78:44 61
7 HEBC Hamburg 34 16 5 13 56:45 53
8 Vorwarts-Wacker 34 15 5 14 86:97 50
9 TSV Buchholz 08 34 14 4 16 70:76 46
10 Suderelbe 34 13 5 16 70:83 44
11 SC Victoria Hamburg 34 12 5 17 69:73 41
12 Sasel 34 11 7 16 60:73 40
13 Turkiye Wilhelmsburg 34 10 6 18 73:94 36
14 Harksheide 34 9 8 17 63:89 35
15 Halstenbek-Rellingen 34 10 5 19 53:83 35
16 TSV Concordia 34 8 5 21 47:88 29
17 Alsterbruder 34 7 4 23 37:90 25
18 Hamburger III 34 3 2 29 45:131 11
Promotion - Oberliga NOFV-Nord 2024/2025 (Play Offs)