Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alsterbruder vs Paloma

Germany Germany

Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Lekaj A.
33' Event
Lekaj A.
39'

AI Match Summary

Paloma in this Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paloma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Alsterbruder
15%
Draws
69%
Paloma
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paloma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paloma lately — more wins on the board than Alsterbruder.
  • Win probability leans Paloma's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Paloma here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Alsterbruder Clean Sheet 13%
Paloma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alsterbruder Paloma
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 6 22
Draws 4 5
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 1.17 2.76
Goals Conceded 2.6 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2025 Oberliga Hamburg
Alsterbruder vs Paloma
1:4
Nov 10, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
Paloma vs Alsterbruder
2:0
Apr 14, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
Alsterbruder vs Paloma
2:6
Oct 15, 2023 Oberliga Hamburg
Paloma vs Alsterbruder
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alsterbruder Compare

Top Goalscorer Algner T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Paloma Compare

Top Goalscorer Lekaj A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sabah H.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.53
Avg xA / game 0.93

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alsterbruder 10 / 100
Paloma 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alsterbruder Paloma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paloma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paloma let in goals in 82% of their last 34 matches.

H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Alsterbruder scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Alsterbruder stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Paloma
0 Goals Scored 2.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Alsterbruder

(Home)
16 May
TSV Concordia
2 : 5
Alsterbruder
10 May
Alsterbruder
1 : 4
Paloma
25 Apr
Suderelbe
3 : 2
Alsterbruder
13 Apr
Alsterbruder
1 : 2
Sasel
04 Apr
Eimsbutteler
4 : 2
Alsterbruder
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Paloma

(Away)
20 Sept
Paloma
3 : 1
Teutonia Ottensen
12 Sept
Dassendorf
1 : 2
Paloma
06 Sept
Paloma
3 : 2
Sasel
28 Aug
Suderelbe
2 : 5
Paloma
23 Aug
Paloma
2 : 2
Pinneberg
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altona 34 25 7 2 99:30 82
2 Dassendorf 34 26 4 4 98:32 82
3 Eimsbutteler 34 22 4 8 96:48 70
4 Paloma 34 22 4 8 84:54 70
5 ETSV Hamburg 34 20 3 11 96:50 63
6 Niendorfer TSV 34 18 7 9 78:44 61
7 HEBC Hamburg 34 16 5 13 56:45 53
8 Vorwarts-Wacker 34 15 5 14 86:97 50
9 TSV Buchholz 08 34 14 4 16 70:76 46
10 Suderelbe 34 13 5 16 70:83 44
11 SC Victoria Hamburg 34 12 5 17 69:73 41
12 Sasel 34 11 7 16 60:73 40
13 Turkiye Wilhelmsburg 34 10 6 18 73:94 36
14 Harksheide 34 9 8 17 63:89 35
15 Halstenbek-Rellingen 34 10 5 19 53:83 35
16 TSV Concordia 34 8 5 21 47:88 29
17 Alsterbruder 34 7 4 23 37:90 25
18 Hamburger III 34 3 2 29 45:131 11
Promotion - Oberliga NOFV-Nord 2024/2025 (Play Offs)