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Altona Magic vs Dandenong Thunder

Australia Australia

NPL Victoria Paisley Park, Melbourne
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Jalloh H.
4' Event
Manyec L.
19' Event
Mells G.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Victoria game between Altona Magic and Dandenong Thunder finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dandenong Thunder.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Altona Magic
20%
Draws
0%
Dandenong Thunder
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Altona Magic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Altona Magic carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Altona Magic a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Victoria form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Altona Magic Clean Sheet 20%
Dandenong Thunder Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Altona Magic Dandenong Thunder
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 7 3
Losses 14 21
Goals Scored 1.23 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 NPL Victoria
Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic
0:2
Apr 18, 2026 NPL Victoria
Altona Magic vs Dandenong Thunder
2:4
Jun 7, 2025 NPL Victoria
Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic
6:0
Mar 1, 2025 NPL Victoria
Altona Magic vs Dandenong Thunder
0:1
Jun 8, 2024 NPL Victoria
Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Altona Magic Compare

Top Goalscorer Mabok J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arou G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Dandenong Thunder Compare

Top Goalscorer Jalloh H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manyec L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Altona Magic 85 / 100
Dandenong Thunder 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Altona Magic Dandenong Thunder

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Altona Magic Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Dandenong Thunder conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Difficult form: Dandenong Thunder registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Altona Magic found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Altona Magic VS Dandenong Thunder
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 3.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Altona Magic

(Home)
29 Aug
Preston Lions
1 : 1
Altona Magic
22 Aug
Altona Magic
0 : 2
Avondale FC
14 Aug
Dandenong City SC
2 : 0
Altona Magic
01 Aug
Altona Magic
1 : 1
George Cross
25 Jul
Dandenong Thunder
0 : 2
Altona Magic
Page 1 of 6

Dandenong Thunder

(Away)
29 Aug
St Albans
6 : 0
Dandenong Thunder
22 Aug
Dandenong Thunder
0 : 5
Oakleigh Cannons
16 Aug
Preston Lions
3 : 0
Dandenong Thunder
01 Aug
Dandenong Thunder
0 : 3
Dandenong City SC
25 Jul
Dandenong Thunder
0 : 2
Altona Magic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Oakleigh Cannons 26 16 6 4 56:24 54
2 Hume City 26 15 4 7 51:36 49
3 Avondale FC 26 15 2 9 65:34 47
4 South Melbourne 26 13 2 11 39:36 41
5 Heidelberg Utd 26 11 7 8 42:34 40
6 Preston Lions 26 15 6 5 41:19 39
7 George Cross 26 9 11 6 35:34 38
8 St Albans 26 9 7 10 36:43 34
9 Dandenong City SC 26 10 7 9 35:31 33
10 Melbourne City U21 26 8 6 12 42:42 30
11 Altona Magic 26 7 7 12 28:42 28
12 Bentleigh Greens 26 6 6 14 27:51 24
13 Green Gully 26 4 6 16 23:52 18
14 Dandenong Thunder 26 4 3 19 23:65 15
Promotion - NPL Victoria (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Victoria (Play Offs)