Sport Picks

Argentina

Torneo Federal Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata

Alvarado

3 - 0

Santamarina

Our Tip

Match Events

Mansilla M.

Cervera G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Torneo Federal game between Alvarado and Santamarina finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alvarado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Alvarado

Draws

Santamarina

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alvarado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Alvarado carry the better recent record into this one.
90% — that's where the model lands on Alvarado taking it.
Regular Torneo Federal form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 19.6%

Alvarado Clean Sheet 68%

Santamarina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alvarado	Santamarina
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	9	6
Draws	14	12
Losses	7	11
Goals Scored	1.38	0.38
Goals Conceded	0.5	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Torneo Federal

Santamarina vs Alvarado

0:0

May 10, 2026 Torneo Federal

Alvarado vs Santamarina

3:0

Apr 16, 2022 Primera Nacional

Alvarado vs Santamarina

3:0

Feb 16, 2014 Torneo Federal

Santamarina vs Alvarado

1:0

Oct 4, 2013 Torneo Federal

Alvarado vs Santamarina

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alvarado Compare

Top Goalscorer Cervera G.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mansilla M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Santamarina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35

Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alvarado 95 / 100

Santamarina 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alvarado Santamarina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALV Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alvarado went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Alvarado's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Santamarina has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Alvarado VS Santamarina

1.38 Goals Scored 0.38

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25

63% Over 1.5 50%

25% Over 2.5 25%

13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alvarado

(Home)

11 Jul

Santamarina

0 : 0

Alvarado

05 Jul

Alvarado

5 : 0

Germinal

28 Jun

Villa Mitre

1 : 0

Alvarado

20 Jun

Alvarado

1 : 0

Circulo Deportivo

14 Jun

Kimberley

2 : 2

Alvarado

Page 1 of 6

Santamarina

(Away)

11 Jul

Santamarina

0 : 0

Alvarado

28 Jun

Germinal

1 : 0

Santamarina

20 Jun

Santamarina

0 : 2

Villa Mitre

14 Jun

Circulo Deportivo

0 : 0

Santamarina

07 Jun

Santamarina

1 : 0

Kimberley

Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sportivo Belgrano	18	7	9	2	21:9	30
2	Douglas Haig	17	8	4	5	20:14	28
3	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	7	6	5	17:12	27
4	Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo	18	7	6	5	24:20	27
5	9 de Julio Rafaela	17	7	4	6	27:25	25
6	Sportivo Las Parejas	17	5	8	4	11:12	23
7	Atletico Escobar	18	6	4	8	21:29	22
8	Independiente Chivilcoy	17	4	6	7	14:21	18
9	Gimnasia E.R.	17	4	5	8	12:17	17
10	El Linqueno	17	4	4	9	13:21	16

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	15	8	3	4	24:19	27
2	Bartolome Mitre	15	7	5	3	13:6	26
3	Sol de America	15	8	2	5	18:12	26
4	Sarmiento de La Banda	15	7	3	5	16:14	24
5	Juventud Antoniana	15	6	4	5	16:11	22
6	Defensores de Vilelas	16	6	1	9	21:26	19
7	Boca Unidos	15	5	3	7	19:22	18
8	Tucuman Central	15	5	1	9	13:18	16
9	Sarmiento Resistencia	15	2	6	7	10:22	12

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 3)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cipolletti	16	7	4	5	19:15	25
2	Argentino MM	15	5	7	3	15:11	22
3	Biblioteca Atenas	15	6	4	5	12:13	22
4	Huracan Las Heras	15	6	4	5	11:13	22
5	Fundacion Amigos	15	4	8	3	17:14	20
6	Deportivo Rincon	16	5	4	7	13:16	19
7	Costa Brava	16	4	6	6	12:13	18
8	San Martin Mendoza	15	4	6	5	10:14	18
9	Juventud U.U.	15	3	7	5	10:10	16

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 4)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	15	7	7	1	11:4	28
2	Alvarado	16	7	6	3	19:7	27
3	Kimberley	16	6	8	2	15:9	26
4	Villa Mitre	15	5	7	3	11:5	22
5	Germinal	15	4	6	5	7:12	18
6	Sol de Mayo	15	4	5	6	12:15	17
7	Guillermo Brown	15	3	5	7	11:20	14
8	Santamarina	15	2	7	6	9:15	13
9	Circulo Deportivo	16	2	7	7	8:16	13

Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)

Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)