Sport Picks
Alvarado vs Santamarina
Argentina
Torneo Federal Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata 
Match Events
2'
2'
Mansilla M.
4'
4'
Cervera G.
9'
9'
Cervera G.
AI Match Summary
The Torneo Federal game between Alvarado and Santamarina finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alvarado.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
20%
22%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alvarado
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Alvarado carry the better recent record into this one.
- 58% — that's where the model lands on Alvarado taking it.
- Regular Torneo Federal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 20.4%
Alvarado Clean Sheet 68%
Santamarina Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alvarado | Santamarina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 6 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 0.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.64 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Torneo Federal
Santamarina vs Alvarado
0:0
May 10, 2026 Torneo Federal
Alvarado vs Santamarina
3:0
Apr 16, 2022 Primera Nacional
Alvarado vs Santamarina
3:0
Feb 16, 2014 Torneo Federal
Santamarina vs Alvarado
1:0
Oct 4, 2013 Torneo Federal
Alvarado vs Santamarina
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alvarado Compare
Top Goalscorer Cervera G.
2 Goals Assists Leader Mansilla M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Santamarina Compare
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alvarado 86 / 100
Santamarina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alvarado Santamarina
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alvarado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Santamarina let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Recent resilience: Alvarado stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Difficult form: Santamarina registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.
Alvarado found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).
Scoring Trends
Alvarado VS Santamarina
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Alvarado
(Home) 20 Sept
Alvarado
1 : 1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
13 Sept
Cipolletti
1 : 0 Alvarado
06 Sept
Alvarado
3 : 2 Biblioteca Atenas
30 Aug
Kimberley
0 : 2 Alvarado
23 Aug
Alvarado
1 : 1 Argentino MM
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Alvarado
1 : 1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
06 Sept
Alvarado
3 : 2 Biblioteca Atenas
23 Aug
Alvarado
1 : 1 Argentino MM
12 Aug
Alvarado
1 : 0 Huracan Las Heras
05 Jul
Alvarado
5 : 0 Germinal
Page 1 of 3
Santamarina
(Away) 20 Sept
Deportivo Rincon
3 : 0 Santamarina
13 Sept
Santamarina
1 : 3 Costa Brava
06 Sept
Juventud U.U.
1 : 0 Santamarina
30 Aug
Santamarina
2 : 1 Circulo Deportivo
23 Aug
Guillermo Brown
1 : 0 Santamarina
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Deportivo Rincon
3 : 0 Santamarina
06 Sept
Juventud U.U.
1 : 0 Santamarina
23 Aug
Guillermo Brown
1 : 0 Santamarina
12 Aug
Germinal
5 : 1 Santamarina
02 Aug
Sol de Mayo
1 : 0 Santamarina
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22:15 | 31 |
| 2 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 21:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 17:12 | 27 |
| 4 | Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | 27 |
| 5 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 28:27 | 25 |
| 6 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 12:13 | 24 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 21:29 | 22 |
| 8 | Independiente Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15:22 | 19 |
| 9 | El Linqueno | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14:21 | 19 |
| 10 | Gimnasia E.R. | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 12:18 | 17 |
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 25:19 | 30 |
| 2 | Bartolome Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 13:7 | 26 |
| 3 | Sol de America | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19:14 | 26 |
| 4 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 17:15 | 25 |
| 5 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 19:11 | 25 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 21:26 | 19 |
| 7 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19:25 | 18 |
| 8 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 14:19 | 17 |
| 9 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12:23 | 15 |
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 19:15 | 25 |
| 2 | Argentino MM | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16:12 | 23 |
| 3 | Biblioteca Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 12:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 11:13 | 23 |
| 5 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 17:14 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13:16 | 19 |
| 7 | San Martin Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 11:15 | 19 |
| 8 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 9 | Juventud U.U. | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 10:10 | 17 |
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 13:4 | 31 |
| 2 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:7 | 27 |
| 3 | Kimberley | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 15:9 | 26 |
| 4 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 14:8 | 23 |
| 5 | Germinal | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7:14 | 18 |
| 6 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 15:18 | 18 |
| 7 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13:20 | 17 |
| 8 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9:17 | 13 |
| 9 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8:16 | 13 |
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
