Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alverca B play Vasco da Gama Vidigueira in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alverca B averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Vasco da Gama Vidigueira averaged 0.87 goals scored and 2.27 conceded. In past meetings, Alverca B won 1, Vasco da Gama Vidigueira won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 17, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Alverca B and 0.81 for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira. This points to a Alverca B double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Alverca B

30%

Draws

16%

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Alverca B picked up more points recently compared to Vasco da Gama Vidigueira.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 68%

Over 3.5 Goals 41%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

Alverca B Clean Sheet 26%

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alverca B	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	3
Draws	7	11
Losses	7	16
Goals Scored	1.77	0.87
Goals Conceded	1.07	2.27
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Alverca B vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

Possession: 46% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

4:0

Aug 17, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Alverca B

Possession: 54% - 51% Cards: 4 - 3

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Lima

1 Goals

Assists Leader Pina A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca B 54 / 100

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alverca B Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca B Win (1)

Secondary Pick Alverca B & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.2%

2.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.5%

1.61

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alverca B attacking → ← attacking Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca B scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Alverca B went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 20

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Louletano	26	14	8	4	36:15	50
2	Malveira	26	13	8	5	38:23	47
3	Alverca B	26	14	5	7	49:32	47
4	Juv. Evora	26	12	10	4	36:23	46
5	GD Alcochetense	26	11	8	7	33:22	41
6	Sintrense	26	11	7	8	30:25	40
7	Lagoa	26	11	6	9	44:34	39
8	O Elvas CAD	26	9	7	10	33:29	34
9	Serpa	26	9	7	10	28:34	34
10	Oriental	26	7	11	8	29:35	32
11	Moncarapachense	26	7	10	9	21:21	31
12	Portimonense B	26	6	4	16	19:42	22
13	Industria	26	2	8	16	20:45	14
14	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	26	1	11	14	20:56	14