Sport Picks

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Alverca vs Estoril

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Figueiredo
Assist: Touaizi N.
45'
Tsoungui A.
45'
Rhaldney

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Alverca
17%
Draws
13%
Estoril
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Alverca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Estoril average 1.13 goals a game right now, well clear of Alverca's 0.88.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Alverca taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Alverca Clean Sheet 20%
Estoril Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca Estoril
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Club Friendly
Alverca vs Estoril
2:0
May 10, 2026 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Estoril
1:1
Dec 27, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Alverca
4:1
Jul 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Estoril vs Alverca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueiredo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Estoril Compare

Top Goalscorer Lacximicant A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca 67 / 100
Estoril 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca Estoril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alverca scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Estoril's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Alverca has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alverca VS Estoril
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca

(Home)
22 Jul
Alverca
2 : 0
Estoril
17 Jul
Alverca
2 : 1
CF Os Belenenses
11 Jul
Leiria
0 : 1
Alverca
16 May
Famalicao
1 : 0
Alverca
10 May
Alverca
1 : 1
Estoril
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Estoril

(Away)
22 Jul
Alverca
2 : 0
Estoril
11 Jul
Estoril
3 : 0
Atletico CP
16 May
Estoril
1 : 3
Benfica
10 May
Alverca
1 : 1
Estoril
03 May
Braga
1 : 1
Estoril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Porto34284266:1888
2Sporting CP34257289:2482
3Benfica342311074:2580
4Braga341611764:3659
5Famalicao341511842:2956
6Gil Vicente3413111047:3850
7Moreirense341271537:4943
8Arouca341261647:6442
9Vitoria Guimaraes341261639:5142
10Estoril341091554:5739
11Alverca341091535:5239
12Rio Ave348121435:5736
13Santa Clara34991632:4136
14Nacional34971837:4534
15Estrela da Amadora346121638:5630
16Casa Pia346121631:5730
17Tondela346101827:5528
18AFS343121927:6721
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)