Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alverca vs Estoril

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Figueiredo
Assist: Touaizi N.
45'
Tsoungui A.
45'
Rhaldney

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Alverca
20%
Draws
10%
Estoril
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alverca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Alverca have won more games recently than Estoril.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Alverca taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Alverca Clean Sheet 20%
Estoril Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca Estoril
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.1 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Club Friendly
Alverca vs Estoril
2:0
May 10, 2026 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Estoril
1:1
Dec 27, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Alverca
4:1
Jul 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Estoril vs Alverca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueiredo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Estoril Compare

Top Goalscorer Lacximicant A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca 85 / 100
Estoril 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca Estoril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estoril has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Alverca's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Alverca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alverca VS Estoril
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca

(Home)
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0
Rio Ave
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2
Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1
Santa Clara
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1
Alverca
Page 1 of 6

Estoril

(Away)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2
Rio Ave
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 66:18 88
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 89:24 82
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 74:25 80
4 Braga 34 16 11 7 64:36 59
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 42:29 56
6 Gil Vicente 34 13 11 10 47:38 50
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 37:49 43
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 47:64 42
9 Vitoria Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 39:51 42
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 54:57 39
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 35:52 39
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 35:57 36
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 32:41 36
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 37:45 34
15 Estrela da Amadora 34 6 12 16 38:56 30
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 31:57 30
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 27:55 28
18 AFS 34 3 12 19 27:67 21
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)