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Alvorada vs Araguaina

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2005
Alvorada Logo

Alvorada

0 - 4
FT
Araguaina Logo

Araguaina

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Araguaina in this Campeonato Tocantinense 2005 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Araguaina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Alvorada
35%
Draws
30%
Araguaina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Araguaina at 1.79 per game, Alvorada at 1.6.
  • Alvorada are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Araguaina here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Alvorada Clean Sheet 20%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alvorada Araguaina
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.6 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.7 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2006 Tocantinense
Alvorada vs Araguaina
1:1
May 5, 2005 Tocantinense
Alvorada vs Araguaina
0:4
Apr 3, 2005 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Alvorada
5:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alvorada 36 / 100
Araguaina 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alvorada Araguaina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.67 goals per match.

Alvorada scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Araguaina conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Alvorada went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Araguaina
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alvorada

(Home)
29 Nov
Guarai SC
2 : 2
Alvorada
22 Nov
Alvorada
3 : 4
Guarai SC
15 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Alvorada
08 Nov
Alvorada
2 : 0
Paraiso EC
25 Oct
Uniao de Palmas
1 : 1
Alvorada
Page 1 of 6

Araguaina

(Away)
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
14 Jun
Araguaina
9 : 0
Galvez
30 May
Guapore
3 : 2
Araguaina
24 May
Araguaina
1 : 1
Porto Velho
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colinas 18 12 1 5 31:17 37
2 Araguaina 18 10 3 5 39:18 33
3 Gurupi 18 9 4 5 41:16 31
4 Palmas 18 9 4 5 31:18 31
5 Interporto 18 8 5 5 29:29 29
6 Tocantinopolis 18 6 6 6 29:24 24
7 CA Tocantinense 18 5 7 6 27:35 22
8 Paraiso EC 18 5 5 8 19:33 20
9 Miracema EC 18 3 5 10 28:44 14
10 Alvorada 18 2 2 14 17:57 8
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2005 (Second stage)