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Alvorada vs Paraiso EC

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2006
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Tocantinense 2006 game between Alvorada and Paraiso EC finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alvorada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Alvorada
35%
Draws
30%
Paraiso EC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alvorada come out ahead of Paraiso EC on wins alone.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on Alvorada taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • Alvorada have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Alvorada Clean Sheet 11%
Paraiso EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alvorada Paraiso EC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.6 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.77
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 Tocantinense 2
Paraiso EC vs Alvorada
2:2
Nov 8, 2025 Tocantinense 2
Alvorada vs Paraiso EC
2:0
Apr 9, 2008 Tocantinense
Alvorada vs Paraiso EC
2:0
Mar 4, 2008 Tocantinense
Paraiso EC vs Alvorada
0:1
Apr 2, 2006 Tocantinense
Alvorada vs Paraiso EC
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alvorada 74 / 100
Paraiso EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alvorada Paraiso EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alvorada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraiso EC has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Alvorada scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Alvorada went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alvorada VS Paraiso EC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.67
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.83
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 83%
25% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Alvorada

(Home)
29 Nov
Guarai SC
2 : 2
Alvorada
22 Nov
Alvorada
3 : 4
Guarai SC
15 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Alvorada
08 Nov
Alvorada
2 : 0
Paraiso EC
25 Oct
Uniao de Palmas
1 : 1
Alvorada
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Paraiso EC

(Away)
15 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Alvorada
08 Nov
Alvorada
2 : 0
Paraiso EC
02 Nov
Paraiso EC
2 : 2
Central Tocantinense
18 Oct
Guarai SC
4 : 0
Paraiso EC
12 Oct
Paraiso EC
3 : 1
Araguaia (TO)
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 10 7 2 1 28:7 23
2 Palmas 10 5 4 1 18:8 19
3 Araguaina 10 5 4 1 14:6 19
4 Colinas 10 5 3 2 22:9 18
5 Gurupi 10 5 3 2 22:11 18
6 Interporto 10 3 4 3 13:13 13
7 Alvorada 10 3 3 4 10:19 12
8 Tocantins 10 2 4 4 11:12 10
9 Miracema EC 10 2 2 6 9:26 8
10 Paraiso EC 10 1 4 5 12:18 7
11 Tocantins B 10 0 1 9 7:37 1
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2006 (Second stage)