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Amarante FC vs Mafra

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Amarante Stadium, Amarante
Amarante FC Logo

Amarante FC

1 - 0
FT
Mafra Logo

Mafra

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Lima A.
21' Event
Ventura
Assist: Saint-Louis J.
46'
Sub
Lima A. In: Goncalves V.
Out: Lima A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Amarante FC in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Amarante FC
20%
Draws
42%
Mafra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Amarante FC have won more games recently than Mafra.
  • Win probability leans Amarante FC's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Amarante FC have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 68%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amarante FC Mafra
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.34 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Amarante FC
1:4
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Mafra
1:0
Sep 6, 2014 Taça de Portugal
Amarante FC vs Mafra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mafra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amarante FC 46 / 100
Mafra 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amarante FC Mafra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Amarante FC scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Mafra let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Amarante FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Amarante FC VS Mafra
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Amarante FC

(Home)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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Mafra

(Away)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1
Mafra
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)