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Amarante FC vs Vitoria Guimaraes B - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Amarante Stadium, Amarante
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Verdi S.
15'
Almeida F.
43'
Moreno Tavares Cunha M.

AI Match Summary

Amarante FC in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Amarante FC
35%
Draws
25%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Amarante FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Amarante FC have won more games recently than Vitoria Guimaraes B.
  • Model gives Amarante FC a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amarante FC Vitoria Guimaraes B
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.28 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC
1:3
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
2:1
Nov 29, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC
2:3
Jan 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ventura
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Verdi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amarante FC 50 / 100
Vitoria Guimaraes B 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amarante FC Vitoria Guimaraes B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amarante FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Amarante FC scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Vitoria Guimaraes B has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Amarante FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Amarante FC VS Vitoria Guimaraes B
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Amarante FC

(Home)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Away)
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)