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America de Propria vs Dorense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

69' Event
Jonathan

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between America de Propria and Dorense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward America de Propria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
America de Propria
15%
Draws
85%
Dorense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dorense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

0% / Low Confidence
  • Dorense have managed 0.93 goals a game lately — America de Propria are scoring more at 1.03.
  • 0% — that's where the model lands on America de Propria taking it.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • America de Propria have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 68%
Dorense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America de Propria Dorense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.03 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.64 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Sergipano
Dorense vs America de Propria
2:2
Jan 14, 2025 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Dorense
1:0
Jan 27, 2024 Sergipano
Dorense vs America de Propria
0:2
Mar 15, 2023 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Dorense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America de Propria Compare

Top Goalscorer Jonathan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.26
Avg xA / game 0.82

Dorense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America de Propria 68 / 100
Dorense 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America de Propria Dorense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick America de Propria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dorense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

America de Propria's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Dorense's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

America de Propria VS Dorense
0.88 Goals Scored 0.6
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.4
63% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 80%
0% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

America de Propria

(Home)
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2
America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
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Dorense

(Away)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)