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America RN vs Fortaleza

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Arena das Dunas, Natal
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Ferreira G.
Own Goal
33'
Lucas Gazal
35'
Luiz Fernando

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
America RN
30%
Draws
30%
Fortaleza
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: America RN

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • America RN have won more games recently than Fortaleza.
  • Win probability leans America RN's way, sitting at 80%.
  • America RN have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fortaleza, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Fortaleza have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
America RN Clean Sheet 68%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America RN Fortaleza
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.67 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
America RN vs Fortaleza
1:1
Feb 3, 2024 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs America RN
2:1
Jul 21, 2020 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs America RN
3:1
Aug 7, 2016 Serie C
Fortaleza vs America RN
2:1
Jun 6, 2016 Serie C
America RN vs Fortaleza
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America RN 86 / 100
Fortaleza 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America RN Fortaleza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick America RN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America RN's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Fortaleza has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

America RN has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

America RN VS Fortaleza
1.5 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

America RN

(Home)
26 Jul
Gama
4 : 2
America RN
19 Jul
America RN
1 : 0
Gama
13 Jul
America RN
2 : 1
Trem
04 Jul
Trem
1 : 4
America RN
27 Jun
America RN
1 : 0
Fluminense-PI
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Fortaleza

(Away)
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Nautico
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
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