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America TO vs Varginha

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Varginha advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
America TO
30%
Draws
35%
Varginha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Varginha haven't matched America TO's recent run of results.
  • Model gives America TO a 36% chance of winning this.
  • America TO have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Varginha, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
America TO Clean Sheet 20%
Varginha Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America TO Varginha
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 22 8
Draws 6 9
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.37 0.94
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 12, 2021 Mineiro 3
America TO vs Varginha
0:1
Dec 5, 2021 Mineiro 3
Varginha vs America TO
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America TO 36 / 100
Varginha 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America TO Varginha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Varginha conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

America TO's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Solid form: America TO remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

America TO VS Varginha
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

America TO

(Home)
04 Nov
Guarani-MG
3 : 0
America TO
26 Oct
America TO
1 : 0
Guarani-MG
19 Oct
America TO
2 : 0
Social
12 Oct
Boston City
0 : 2
America TO
05 Oct
America TO
0 : 1
Contagem
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Varginha

(Away)
21 Jun
URT
1 : 2
Varginha
15 Jun
Varginha
2 : 2
Uberaba
08 Jun
Varginha
1 : 1
Caldense
02 Jun
Mamore
1 : 1
Varginha
28 May
Patrocinense
0 : 2
Varginha
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba 3
Boston City 1
Santarritense 0
Manchester Futebol 1
America TO 1
Pocos de Caldas 1
Araxa 0
Varginha 1
Semi-finals
Uberaba 3
Manchester Futebol 0
America TO 0
Varginha 2
Final
Uberaba 3
Varginha 3