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American Samoa U19 vs Tonga U19

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U19 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Foliaki W.
18' Event
Lee D.
56' Event
Tai V.

AI Match Summary

The OFC Championship U19 2024 game between American Samoa U19 and Tonga U19 finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tonga U19.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
American Samoa U19
15%
Draws
85%
Tonga U19
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonga U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tonga U19 come out ahead of American Samoa U19 on wins alone.
  • Model gives Tonga U19 a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
American Samoa U19 Clean Sheet 10%
Tonga U19 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric American Samoa U19 Tonga U19
Matches Played 14 14
Wins 0 3
Draws 1 2
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.5 0.86
Goals Conceded 4.29 3.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2024 OFC Championship U19
American Samoa U19 vs Tonga U19
3:4
May 29, 2018 OFC Championship U19
Tonga U19 vs American Samoa U19
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

American Samoa U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pouli P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Tonga U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Tai V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Foliaki W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

American Samoa U19 10 / 100
Tonga U19 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
American Samoa U19 Tonga U19

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tonga U19 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tonga U19 has conceded goals in 86% of their last 14 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Away concern: Tonga U19 has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

American Samoa U19's goal record stands at 29% scoring rate across 14 recent games.

Scoring Trends

American Samoa U19 VS Tonga U19
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
4.25 Goals Conceded 4
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

American Samoa U19

(Home)
15 Apr
American Samoa U19
3 : 4
Tonga U19
12 Apr
American Samoa U19
2 : 3
Cook Islands U19
09 Apr
Vanuatu U19
4 : 0
American Samoa U19
13 Sept
American Samoa U19
0 : 4
Cook Islands U19
11 Sept
New Zealand U19
9 : 0
American Samoa U19
Page 1 of 3

Tonga U19

(Away)
10 Jun
Tonga U19
1 : 4
Cook Islands U19
07 Jun
Tonga U19
0 : 4
Papua New Guinea U19
15 Apr
American Samoa U19
3 : 4
Tonga U19
12 Apr
Tonga U19
0 : 3
Vanuatu U19
09 Apr
Tonga U19
1 : 1
Cook Islands U19
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vanuatu U19 3 3 0 0 9:0 9
2 Cook Islands U19 3 1 1 1 4:5 4
3 Tonga U19 3 1 1 1 5:7 4
4 American Samoa U19 3 0 0 3 5:11 0
Promotion - OFC Championship U19 2024 (Main)