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American Samoa vs Tonga

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World Cup 2002 Coffs Harbour International Stadium, Coffs Harbour
American Samoa Logo

American Samoa

0 - 5
FT
Tonga Logo

Tonga

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tonga in this World Cup 2002 tie, finishing 0-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
American Samoa
15%
Draws
42%
Tonga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: American Samoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Tonga have won more games recently than American Samoa.
  • Win probability leans Tonga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Tonga arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tonga, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
American Samoa Clean Sheet 10%
Tonga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric American Samoa Tonga
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 6
Draws 2 2
Losses 24 23
Goals Scored 0.63 1.16
Goals Conceded 6.73 3.68
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 3.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2023 Pacific Games
American Samoa vs Tonga
2:6
Sep 2, 2015 World Championship
Tonga vs American Samoa
1:2
Nov 23, 2011 World Championship
American Samoa vs Tonga
2:1
Sep 1, 2007 World Championship
Tonga vs American Samoa
4:0
Apr 14, 2001 World Championship
American Samoa vs Tonga
0:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

American Samoa 10 / 100
Tonga 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
American Samoa Tonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tonga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tonga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 94% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Tonga has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: American Samoa scored in 40% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

American Samoa VS Tonga
0.63 Goals Scored 1
6.88 Goals Conceded 3.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

American Samoa

(Home)
28 Mar
American Samoa
0 : 6
Guam
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
29 Nov
American Samoa
2 : 6
Tonga
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Tonga

(Away)
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
31 Aug
Ba
4 : 0
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4
Samoa
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Australia 4 4 0 0 66:0 12
2 Fiji 4 3 0 1 27:4 9
3 Tonga 4 2 0 2 7:30 6
4 Samoa 4 1 0 3 9:18 3
5 American Samoa 4 0 0 4 0:57 0
Promotion - World Cup 2002 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 4 4 0 0 19:1 12
2 Tahiti 4 3 0 1 14:6 9
3 Solomon Islands 4 2 0 2 17:10 6
4 Vanuatu 4 1 0 3 11:21 3
5 Cook Islands 4 0 0 4 2:25 0
Promotion - World Cup 2002 (Play Offs)