Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024

Pasaia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Anaitasuna FT play Pasaia in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Anaitasuna FT averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Pasaia averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Anaitasuna FT won 1, Pasaia won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 23, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.60 for Anaitasuna FT and 0.80 for Pasaia. This points to a Pasaia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Anaitasuna FT

27%

Draws

37%

Pasaia

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Pasaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Anaitasuna FT picked up more points recently compared to Pasaia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.60 vs 0.80 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 40%

Over 3.5 Goals 24%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Anaitasuna FT Clean Sheet 26%

Pasaia Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Anaitasuna FT	Pasaia
Matches Played	30	40
Wins	8	10
Draws	5	10
Losses	17	20
Goals Scored	1.03	0.82
Goals Conceded	1.53	1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Pasaia vs Anaitasuna FT

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

Nov 4, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Anaitasuna FT vs Pasaia

Possession: 44% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Jan 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Anaitasuna FT vs Pasaia

Possession: 49% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

0:0

Sep 10, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Pasaia vs Anaitasuna FT

Possession: 49% - 46% Cards: 3 - 4

3:2

Mar 5, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Anaitasuna FT vs Pasaia

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Anaitasuna FT Compare

Top Goalscorer Aramendi J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Arabaolaza A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Pasaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Zeziaga J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Anaitasuna FT 38 / 100

Pasaia 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Anaitasuna FT Pasaia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pasaia or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +17.6%

2.94

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Anaitasuna FT attacking → ← attacking Pasaia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Anaitasuna FT scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Pasaia let in goals in 73% of their last 40 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Anaitasuna FT went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Pasaia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 40

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Vitoria	34	25	7	2	65:17	82
2	Basconia	34	18	10	6	54:32	64
3	Beasain	34	19	6	9	55:36	63
4	SD Deusto	34	17	10	7	45:29	61
5	Portugalete	34	17	9	8	54:32	60
6	Lagun Onak	34	16	9	9	43:33	57
7	SCD Durango	34	14	8	12	47:47	50
8	San Ignacio	34	12	11	11	49:44	47
9	Leioa	34	13	6	15	46:51	45
10	Urduliz FT	34	11	9	14	38:47	42
11	Derio	34	11	9	14	35:35	42
12	Alaves C	34	10	10	14	34:42	40
13	Touring KE	34	9	12	13	39:49	39
14	Padura	34	9	11	14	33:47	38
15	Pasaia	34	9	7	18	23:42	34
16	Anaitasuna FT	34	8	8	18	35:51	32
17	Aurrera Ondarroa	34	5	9	20	26:54	24
18	Anorga	34	3	9	22	31:64	18