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Ancona vs Avezzano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 Stadio del Conero, Ancona
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Martiniello A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 game between Ancona and Avezzano finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ancona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Ancona
20%
Draws
42%
Avezzano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Avezzano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ancona come out ahead of Avezzano on wins alone.
  • Avezzano are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Ancona Clean Sheet 25%
Avezzano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ancona Avezzano
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 22 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.32 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Avezzano vs Ancona
4:0
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Avezzano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ancona Compare

Top Goalscorer Martiniello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Avezzano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ancona 17 / 100
Avezzano 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ancona Avezzano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avezzano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ancona's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 40 recent games.

Avezzano let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ancona stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ancona VS -
2 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ancona

(Home)
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3
Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Ancona
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2
Ancona
Page 1 of 8

Avezzano

(Away)
04 May
Avezzano
4 : 0
Ancona
27 Apr
Isernia
3 : 2
Avezzano
17 Apr
Avezzano
4 : 0
Castelfidardo
13 Apr
Avezzano
2 : 1
Fossombrone
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0
Avezzano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sambenedettese 34 21 9 4 61:21 72
2 Aquila Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:31 62
3 Teramo 34 17 9 8 51:33 60
4 Calcio Chieti 34 16 11 7 52:39 58
5 Fossombrone 34 12 14 8 44:36 50
6 Ancona 34 13 8 13 35:40 47
7 Avezzano 34 13 7 14 41:43 46
8 Castelfidardo 34 12 9 13 39:34 45
9 Atletico Ascoli 34 10 13 11 35:39 43
10 Vigor Senigallia 34 9 15 10 36:38 42
11 Termoli 34 9 14 11 37:44 41
12 Recanatese 34 10 10 14 42:53 40
13 AS Sora 34 9 13 12 32:39 40
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 10 8 16 37:45 38
15 Civitanovese Calcio 34 8 13 13 31:39 37
16 Roma City 34 8 11 15 32:36 35
17 Isernia 34 8 10 16 32:57 34
18 Fermana 34 6 11 17 24:42 27
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Out)