Sport Picks
Ancona vs Fossombrone - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Coppa Italia Serie D Stadio del Conero, Ancona 
Match Events
80'
80'
Pupo Posada Y.
87'
87'
Ferreira D.
90'
90'
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
30%
27%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ancona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Fossombrone haven't matched Ancona's recent run of results.
- Model gives Ancona a 43% chance of winning this.
- Ancona have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Fossombrone, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ancona | Fossombrone |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 29 |
| Wins | 19 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.53 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 7, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie D
Ancona vs Fossombrone
2:1
Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Ancona
1:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Fossombrone
1:2
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Fossombrone vs Ancona
0:1
Apr 17, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Ancona
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ancona Compare
Top Goalscorer Pupo Posada Y.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Fossombrone Compare
Top Goalscorer Ferreira D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ancona 77 / 100
Fossombrone 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ancona Fossombrone
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ancona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ancona's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
Ancona has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Fossombrone conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Ancona VS Fossombrone
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Ancona
(Home) 07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1 Ancona
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
Page 1 of 7
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1 Montecchio Gallo
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 4
Fossombrone
(Away) 07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0 Fossombrone
20 Sept
Fossombrone
2 : 4 Lanciano FC
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0 Fossombrone
16 Sept
Sporting Trestina
0 : 1 Fossombrone
06 Sept
Giulianova
1 : 2 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
AS Biellese 3
Alessandria 2
Valenzana 3
Saluzzo 2
Villa Valle 2
Tritium 1
Brusaporto 2
Chievo 1
Real Calepina 0
AC Leon 2
Varese FC 2
Pro Patria 5
Pavia 1
Sant'Angelo 3
Sanremese 5
Millesimo 2
Cjarlins Muzane 2
Brian Lignano 1
Este 0
Caldiero Terme 2
Mestre 0
Schio 2
Clodiense 2
Campodarsego 1
Lentigione 1
Piacenza 3
Sasso Marconi 1
Cittadella Vis Modena 0
Sestri Levante 1
Pistoiese 0
Seravezza Pozzi 1
Lucchese 2
Terranuova Traiana 0
Prato 3
Ternana -
Recanatese -
Ancona 2
Fossombrone 1
Flaminia 0
Siena 3
Unipomezia 3
Teramo 4
Latte Dolce 3
Sarrabus Ogliastra 0
Aquila Calcio 5
Termoli 2
Paganese 1
Real Normanna 2
Certosa V. Campagnano 4
Albalonga 1
Nocerina 1
Turris 2
Fidelis Andria 2
Bisceglie 1
Virtus Francavilla 3
Gravina 0
Lamezia 2
Gelbison 3
Igea Virtus 3
Reggina 2
Calcio Avola 0
ASD Modica Calcio 4
Trapani 1
Licata 2
1/16-finals
AS Biellese -
Valenzana -
Villa Valle -
Brusaporto -
AC Leon -
Pro Patria -
Sant'Angelo -
Sanremese -
Cjarlins Muzane -
Caldiero Terme -
Schio -
Clodiense -
Piacenza -
Sasso Marconi -
Sestri Levante -
Lucchese -
Prato -
TBD -
Ancona -
Siena -
Teramo -
Latte Dolce -
Aquila Calcio -
Real Normanna -
Certosa V. Campagnano -
Turris -
Fidelis Andria -
Virtus Francavilla -
Gelbison -
Igea Virtus -
ASD Modica Calcio -
Licata -
1/8-finals
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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