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Stadium Background

Ancona vs Termoli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Stadio del Conero, Ancona
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Cericola M.
90'
Bonaccorsi S.
90'
Colabella M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Ancona and Termoli finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ancona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ancona
35%
Draws
25%
Termoli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ancona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ancona come out ahead of Termoli on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Ancona taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Termoli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ancona Termoli
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 20 6
Draws 7 14
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.61 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Termoli
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Ancona
2:3
Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Termoli
0:1
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Ancona
4:0
Jan 12, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Ancona
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ancona Compare

Top Goalscorer Cericola M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Termoli Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ancona 51 / 100
Termoli 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ancona Termoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ancona found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Termoli let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ancona stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ancona VS Termoli
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ancona

(Home)
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3
Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Ancona
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2
Ancona
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Termoli

(Away)
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1
Aquila Calcio
26 Apr
Ostiamare
1 : 0
Termoli
19 Apr
Termoli
1 : 2
Notaresco Calcio
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Teramo
0 : 0
Termoli
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)