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Angola vs Malawi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Estádio 11 de Novembro, Luanda
Angola Logo

Angola

3 - 1
FT
Malawi Logo

Malawi

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Milson
Assist: Sambu M.
6'
Lameck M.
38' Event
Mabululu
Assist: Francisco P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Angola
35%
Draws
20%
Malawi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Angola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Angola lately — more wins on the board than Malawi.
  • Angola are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Angola have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Angola, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Angola Clean Sheet 68%
Malawi Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Angola Malawi
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 5
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 1.5 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Angola vs Malawi
3:1
Jun 10, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
0:1
Jun 1, 2018 COSAFA Cup
Angola vs Malawi
0:0
Jun 29, 2017 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
0:0
Jun 12, 2016 COSAFA Cup
Malawi vs Angola
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Angola Compare

Top Goalscorer Milson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mabululu
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Malawi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Angola 95 / 100
Malawi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Angola Malawi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Angola Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Angola has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Angola's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Malawi has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Angola VS Malawi
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Angola

(Home)
06 Oct
Angola
3 : 1
Malawi
25 Sept
Egypt
0 : 0
Angola
09 Jun
Angola
3 : 0
Central Africa
05 Jun
Angola
1 : 1
Mauritania
29 Dec
Angola
0 : 0
Egypt
Page 1 of 6

Malawi

(Away)
06 Oct
Angola
3 : 1
Malawi
25 Sept
Malawi
2 : 1
South Sudan
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Botswana
1 : 0
Malawi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Angola 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Malawi 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)