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Angola vs Zimbabwe

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade de Marrakech
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Angola play Zimbabwe in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Angola averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Zimbabwe averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Angola won 1, Zimbabwe won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Dec 26, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Angola and 1.19 for Zimbabwe. This points to a Angola double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Angola
35%
Draws
27%
Zimbabwe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Angola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Angola picked up more points recently compared to Zimbabwe.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Angola Clean Sheet 20%
Zimbabwe Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Angola Zimbabwe
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 12 9
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.5 0.86
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 26, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Angola vs Zimbabwe
1:1
Mar 24, 2018 Friendly International
Zimbabwe vs Angola
2:2
Oct 14, 2012 Africa Cup of Nations
Angola vs Zimbabwe
2:0
Sep 9, 2012 Africa Cup of Nations
Zimbabwe vs Angola
3:1
Aug 13, 2005 Friendly International
Angola vs Zimbabwe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Angola Compare

Top Goalscorer Gelson Dala
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Zimbabwe Compare

Top Goalscorer Musona K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Angola 38 / 100
Zimbabwe 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Angola Zimbabwe

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Angola or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Angola attacking → ← attacking Zimbabwe

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Angola scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Zimbabwe let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Angola went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Zimbabwe lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 30
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Morocco32106:17
2Mali30302:23
3Comoros30210:22
4Zambia30211:42
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Egypt32103:17
2South Africa32015:46
3Angola30212:32
4Zimbabwe30124:61
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nigeria33008:49
2Tunisia31116:54
3Tanzania30213:42
4Uganda30123:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Senegal32107:17
2D.R. Congo32105:17
3Benin31021:43
4Botswana30030:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Algeria33007:19
2Burkina Faso32014:26
3Sudan31021:53
4Equatorial Guinea30032:60
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ivory Coast32105:37
2Cameroon32104:27
3Mozambique31024:53
4Gabon30034:70