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Anorga vs Leioa

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Anorga Logo

Anorga

0 - 1
FT
Leioa Logo

Leioa

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Juste J.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leioa in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leioa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Anorga
15%
Draws
48%
Leioa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leioa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Anorga haven't matched Leioa's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Anorga a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Leioa have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Anorga Clean Sheet 68%
Leioa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Anorga Leioa
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 17
Draws 3 5
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.17 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Leioa
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Anorga
7:1
Mar 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Leioa
0:1
Nov 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Anorga
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Anorga 95 / 100
Leioa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Anorga Leioa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Anorga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Leioa conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Anorga remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Anorga found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Anorga VS Leioa
1.33 Goals Scored 1.38
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
83% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Anorga

(Home)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

Leioa

(Away)
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11
Ath Bilbao
21 Jun
Albacete B
2 : 0
Leioa
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Albacete B
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)