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Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Tomlinson S.
Assist: Pereira D.
11' Event
Bramble T. J. E.
Assist: George K.
14' Event
Bennett W.
Assist: Romano J.

AI Match Summary

Antigua and Barbuda in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Antigua and Barbuda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Antigua and Barbuda
15%
Draws
42%
Aruba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Antigua and Barbuda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Antigua and Barbuda haven't matched Aruba's recent run of results.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Antigua and Barbuda taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Antigua and Barbuda Clean Sheet 68%
Aruba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Antigua and Barbuda Aruba
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 8 13
Draws 4 4
Losses 19 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.68
Goals Conceded 2.06 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
3:2
Sep 23, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda
1:0
Nov 12, 2025 CONCACAF Series
Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
0:0
Nov 18, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda
2:3
Sep 9, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Antigua and Barbuda Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomlinson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bramble T. J. E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Bennett W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fermina C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Antigua and Barbuda 59 / 100
Aruba 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Antigua and Barbuda Aruba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Antigua and Barbuda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 6:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aruba let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Antigua and Barbuda has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Antigua and Barbuda's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Antigua and Barbuda VS Aruba
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Antigua and Barbuda

(Home)
06 Oct
Antigua and Barbuda
3 : 2
Aruba
01 Oct
Anguilla
0 : 3
Antigua and Barbuda
26 Sept
Antigua and Barbuda
5 : 0
Anguilla
23 Sept
Aruba
1 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
18 Nov
Antigua and Barbuda
1 : 4
Guyana
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Aruba

(Away)
06 Oct
Antigua and Barbuda
3 : 2
Aruba
04 Oct
Aruba
3 : 2
Anguilla
29 Sept
Anguilla
0 : 2
Aruba
23 Sept
Aruba
1 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
07 Jun
Curacao
4 : 0
Aruba
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