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AO Ilisiakos vs Agios Nikolaos

Greece Greece

Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 2024/2025
AO Ilisiakos Logo

AO Ilisiakos

3 - 1
FT
Agios Nikolaos Logo

Agios Nikolaos

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with AO Ilisiakos averaging 1.4 xG at home and Agios Nikolaos producing 1.2 xG on their travels. Agios Nikolaos will likely drop deep and defend, forcing AO Ilisiakos to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
AO Ilisiakos
18%
Draws
38%
Agios Nikolaos
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: AO Ilisiakos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • AO Ilisiakos picked up more points recently compared to Agios Nikolaos.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
AO Ilisiakos Clean Sheet 20%
Agios Nikolaos Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AO Ilisiakos Agios Nikolaos
Matches Played 41 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 8 4
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.49 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

12.01.25 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
AO Ilisiakos vs Agios Nikolaos
3:1
22.09.24 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
Agios Nikolaos vs AO Ilisiakos
0:0
24.01.24 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
Agios Nikolaos vs AO Ilisiakos
2:0
17.09.23 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
AO Ilisiakos vs Agios Nikolaos
1:0
11.05.14 Football League 2 - Group F
Agios Nikolaos vs AO Ilisiakos
1:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

AO Ilisiakos

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • ✓ Dangerous on corners
  • ✓ Overlap on the wings
  • ✓ Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • ✗ Vulnerable to counters
  • ✗ Weak in the air

Agios Nikolaos

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • ✓ Quick recovery
  • ✓ Solid midfield screen
  • ✓ Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • ✗ Fouling under pressure
  • ✗ Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AO Ilisiakos Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
8 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.83

Agios Nikolaos Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.87

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Agios Nikolaos • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder AO Ilisiakos • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Agios Nikolaos • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker AO Ilisiakos • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AO Ilisiakos 44 / 100
Agios Nikolaos 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AO Ilisiakos Agios Nikolaos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: AO Ilisiakos or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

AO Ilisiakos will likely press early to force mistakes.

AO Ilisiakos 59%
Agios Nikolaos 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Agios Nikolaos should settle down and try to slow the pace.

AO Ilisiakos 54%
Agios Nikolaos 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

AO Ilisiakos 51%
Agios Nikolaos 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect AO Ilisiakos to push more players wide.

AO Ilisiakos 56%
Agios Nikolaos 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

AO Ilisiakos 51%
Agios Nikolaos 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

AO Ilisiakos 62%
Agios Nikolaos 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AO Ilisiakos attacking → ← attacking Agios Nikolaos

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AO Ilisiakos have scored in 93% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Agios Nikolaos concede most goals (48%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 26 shots per game, well above the league median.

AO Ilisiakos are unbeaten in 7 straight matches when scoring first.

Agios Nikolaos have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: AO Ilisiakos wants a European spot, while Agios Nikolaos is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 43
1.35 Goals expected (xG) 1.19
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2