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Apafut vs Pelotas

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 2
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Brandao
57' Event
Caion
90' Event
Joao Trevisol

AI Match Summary

The Gaucho 2 game between Apafut and Pelotas finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Apafut.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Apafut
35%
Draws
15%
Pelotas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Apafut

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Pelotas's 1.41 goals per match outpaces what Apafut have produced (1.32).
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Apafut taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Apafut Clean Sheet 68%
Pelotas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Apafut Pelotas
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 10 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.32 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Gaucho 2
Apafut vs Pelotas
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Apafut Compare

Top Goalscorer Caion
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Trevisol
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pelotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Brandao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Apafut 68 / 100
Pelotas 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Apafut Pelotas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Apafut Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Apafut scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Apafut stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Pelotas let in goals in 59% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Apafut VS Pelotas
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Apafut

(Home)
19 Sept
Apafut
1 : 1
Uniao Frederiquense De Futebol
16 Sept
Apafut
2 : 1
Pelotas
13 Sept
Brasil de Farroupilha
1 : 0
Apafut
09 Sept
EC Guarani
0 : 2
Apafut
06 Sept
Apafut
3 : 2
Aimore
Page 1 of 6

Pelotas

(Away)
19 Sept
Pelotas
0 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
16 Sept
Apafut
2 : 1
Pelotas
13 Sept
Pelotas
2 : 3
EC Guarani
09 Sept
Pelotas
0 : 0
Aimore
05 Sept
Esportivo Bento Goncalves
1 : 1
Pelotas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Passo Fundo 14 8 5 1 21:9 29
2 Veranopolis 14 7 4 3 12:6 25
3 Uniao Frederiquense De Futebol 14 6 6 2 16:9 24
4 Esportivo Bento Goncalves 14 6 6 2 17:11 24
5 Brasil de Farroupilha 14 5 8 1 15:9 23
6 Santa Cruz RS 14 5 7 2 14:10 22
7 Brasil de Pelotas 13 5 6 2 14:8 21
8 Apafut 14 5 6 3 18:13 21
9 Aimore 14 5 5 4 13:13 20
10 Pelotas 13 3 6 4 13:16 15
11 EC Guarani 14 3 6 5 15:20 15
12 SC Gaucho 14 3 3 8 11:15 12
13 GE Bage 14 2 6 6 9:18 12
14 GE Gloria 14 2 5 7 11:17 11
15 Gramadense 14 1 7 6 9:18 10
16 Lajeadense 14 1 2 11 5:21 5
Promotion - Gaucho 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Gaucho 3 2027 (Main)