Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aparecida vs SC Vila Real

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Omeke C.
70' Event
Pinto D.
76' Event
Armando

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 game between Aparecida and SC Vila Real finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aparecida.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Aparecida
20%
Draws
20%
SC Vila Real
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aparecida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Aparecida carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Aparecida a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Aparecida Clean Sheet 68%
SC Vila Real Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aparecida SC Vila Real
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 4 12
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.37 0.97
Goals Conceded 2 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Aparecida vs SC Vila Real
3:1
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
SC Vila Real vs Aparecida
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aparecida Compare

Top Goalscorer Omeke C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pinto D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

SC Vila Real Compare

Top Goalscorer Armando
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aparecida 68 / 100
SC Vila Real 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aparecida SC Vila Real

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aparecida Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Aparecida's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Defensive concern: SC Vila Real conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

SC Vila Real lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aparecida VS SC Vila Real
1.5 Goals Scored 1
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aparecida

(Home)
18 Apr
Cinfaes
5 : 2
Aparecida
12 Apr
Aparecida
4 : 1
Florgrade
04 Apr
Leca
5 : 1
Aparecida
22 Mar
Aparecida
3 : 1
SC Vila Real
15 Mar
Rebordosa
3 : 1
Aparecida
Page 1 of 6

SC Vila Real

(Away)
18 Apr
Leca
3 : 0
SC Vila Real
12 Apr
SC Vila Real
1 : 1
Vila Mea
04 Apr
SC Vila Real
2 : 2
Rebordosa
22 Mar
Aparecida
3 : 1
SC Vila Real
15 Mar
SC Vila Real
0 : 3
GD Resende
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)