Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aprilia vs Arzachena

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Ramceski A.
30' Event
Bonu F.
63' Event
Pinna G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 game between Aprilia and Arzachena finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arzachena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Aprilia
30%
Draws
51%
Arzachena
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arzachena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Aprilia haven't matched Arzachena's recent run of results.
  • Arzachena are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Aprilia Clean Sheet 12%
Arzachena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aprilia Arzachena
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 10 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Aprilia vs Arzachena
1:3
Dec 3, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Arzachena vs Aprilia
1:2
Apr 24, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Arzachena vs Aprilia
0:1
Dec 8, 2021 Serie D - Group G
Aprilia vs Arzachena
0:1
Jan 12, 2020 Serie D - Group G
Aprilia vs Arzachena
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aprilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramceski A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Arzachena Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonu F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pinna G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aprilia 11 / 100
Arzachena 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aprilia Arzachena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arzachena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arzachena's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Aprilia's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Aprilia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aprilia VS Arzachena
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aprilia

(Home)
07 May
Vis Artena
2 : 2
Aprilia
30 Apr
Aprilia
4 : 1
Casertana
23 Apr
Pomezia
1 : 0
Aprilia
16 Apr
Aprilia
1 : 3
Arzachena
06 Apr
Real Monterotondo
2 : 2
Aprilia
Page 1 of 6

Arzachena

(Away)
14 May
Casertana
3 : 3
Arzachena
07 May
Arzachena
2 : 1
Ilvamaddalena
30 Apr
SS Nola 1925
1 : 2
Arzachena
23 Apr
Arzachena
3 : 0
Palmese 1914
16 Apr
Aprilia
1 : 3
Arzachena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sorrento 34 21 7 6 53:28 70
2 Paganese 34 19 11 4 56:29 68
3 Casertana 34 17 7 10 57:40 58
4 Arzachena 34 17 6 11 51:40 57
5 Lupa Frascati 34 13 11 10 44:29 50
6 Palmese 1914 34 13 10 11 50:44 49
7 Cassino 34 13 8 13 42:45 47
8 Real Monterotondo 34 12 9 13 51:55 45
9 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 12 7 15 51:54 43
10 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:39 41
11 Vis Artena 34 9 14 11 24:28 41
12 Portici 1906 34 9 13 12 45:49 40
13 Angri 34 10 9 15 39:51 39
14 Atletico Uri 34 10 9 15 45:62 39
15 Ilvamaddalena 34 8 14 12 30:39 38
16 Pomezia 34 8 11 15 40:58 35
17 SS Nola 1925 34 8 11 15 44:55 35
18 Aprilia 34 8 10 16 34:47 34
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Out)