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Aprilia vs Casertana Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Gjuci A.
49' Event
Capuano E.
63' Event
Gjuci A.

AI Match Summary

Aprilia in this Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aprilia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Aprilia
30%
Draws
41%
Casertana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Casertana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Casertana have won more games recently than Aprilia.
  • Win probability leans Aprilia's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Aprilia here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Aprilia Clean Sheet 19%
Casertana Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aprilia Casertana
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 7 17
Draws 10 11
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Aprilia vs Casertana
4:1
Dec 18, 2022 Serie D - Group G
Casertana vs Aprilia
3:4
Mar 2, 2014 Lega Pro C2/B
Aprilia vs Casertana
2:1
Oct 27, 2013 Lega Pro C2/B
Casertana vs Aprilia
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aprilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Gjuci A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Capuano E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Casertana Compare

Top Goalscorer Taurino L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aprilia 42 / 100
Casertana 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aprilia Casertana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Aprilia found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Casertana has conceded goals in 65% of their last 40 outings.

Solid form: Aprilia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casertana
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aprilia

(Home)
07 May
Vis Artena
2 : 2
Aprilia
30 Apr
Aprilia
4 : 1
Casertana
23 Apr
Pomezia
1 : 0
Aprilia
16 Apr
Aprilia
1 : 3
Arzachena
06 Apr
Real Monterotondo
2 : 2
Aprilia
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Casertana

(Away)
03 Oct
Cavese
2 : 0
Casertana
27 Sept
Casertana
1 : 2
Catania
19 Sept
Audace Cerignola
0 : 0
Casertana
15 Sept
Casertana
1 : 0
Altamura
12 Sept
Inter U23
2 : 3
Casertana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sorrento 34 21 7 6 53:28 70
2 Paganese 34 19 11 4 56:29 68
3 Casertana 34 17 7 10 57:40 58
4 Arzachena 34 17 6 11 51:40 57
5 Lupa Frascati 34 13 11 10 44:29 50
6 Palmese 1914 34 13 10 11 50:44 49
7 Cassino 34 13 8 13 42:45 47
8 Real Monterotondo 34 12 9 13 51:55 45
9 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 12 7 15 51:54 43
10 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:39 41
11 Vis Artena 34 9 14 11 24:28 41
12 Portici 1906 34 9 13 12 45:49 40
13 Angri 34 10 9 15 39:51 39
14 Atletico Uri 34 10 9 15 45:62 39
15 Ilvamaddalena 34 8 14 12 30:39 38
16 Pomezia 34 8 11 15 40:58 35
17 SS Nola 1925 34 8 11 15 44:55 35
18 Aprilia 34 8 10 16 34:47 34
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2022/2023 (Play Out)