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APS Bomet vs Mahia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Fri, Sep 4, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

APS Bomet host Mahia in the Premier League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Mahia have shipped 0.96 goals a game lately, while APS Bomet have conceded 0.96 and scored 1.13. Past meetings favor APS Bomet slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 4, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.17 - 0.86) back Mahia to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
APS Bomet
15%
Draws
16%
Mahia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: APS Bomet

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mahia come out ahead of APS Bomet on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans APS Bomet's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
APS Bomet Clean Sheet 20%
Mahia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric APS Bomet Mahia
Matches Played 23 26
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.42
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Mahia
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Mahia
1:2
Nov 25, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs APS Bomet
1:4
May 20, 2023 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Mahia
0:0
Dec 14, 2022 Premier League
Mahia vs APS Bomet
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

APS Bomet 58 / 100
Mahia 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
APS Bomet Mahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick APS Bomet Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: APS Bomet remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

APS Bomet found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (23 games).

Mahia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

APS Bomet VS Mahia
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

APS Bomet

(Home)
31 May
Tusker
1 : 1
APS Bomet
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
20 May
Bandari
0 : 2
APS Bomet
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
06 May
APS Bomet
1 : 0
KCB
Page 1 of 5

Mahia

(Away)
13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1
Mahia
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2
Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1
Al Hilal Omdurman
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)