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Aquila Calcio vs AS Sora

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aquila Calcio play AS Sora in the Serie D - Group F. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aquila Calcio averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. AS Sora averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Aquila Calcio won 2, AS Sora won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 1, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Aquila Calcio and 1.38 for AS Sora. This points to a Aquila Calcio double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Aquila Calcio
19%
Draws
37%
AS Sora
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Aquila Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Aquila Calcio picked up more points recently compared to AS Sora.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 17%
AS Sora Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aquila Calcio AS Sora
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.43 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs AS Sora
2:3
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Aquila Calcio
4:1
Apr 27, 2025 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Aquila Calcio
0:2
Dec 15, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs AS Sora
2:0
Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Aquila Calcio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aquila Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sparacello C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

AS Sora Compare

Top Goalscorer Tatti E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Curatolo D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aquila Calcio 43 / 100
AS Sora 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aquila Calcio AS Sora

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aquila Calcio or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aquila Calcio attacking → ← attacking AS Sora

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aquila Calcio scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

AS Sora let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aquila Calcio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

AS Sora lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 33
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ostiamare34247365:2579
2Ancona34237459:2276
3Teramo342111265:2974
4Atletico Ascoli341413755:3555
5Notaresco Calcio341312943:3151
6Aquila Calcio341491153:4451
7Giulianova341116740:3149
8Vigor Senigallia341213945:4049
9Fossombrone3411111228:3444
10Unipomezia3410121243:4242
11Termoli348151127:3039
12Maceratese341151843:4938
13AS Sora349111440:5038
14Recanatese34881839:5732
15San Marino Calcio34871933:6131
16Calcio Chieti348111531:5524
17Castelfidardo34652330:6523
18Sammaurese34572230:6920