Sport Picks
Arandina vs Palencia CA - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 
Match Events
70'
70'
Fernandez P.
88'
88'
Gutierrez C.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 game between Arandina and Palencia CA finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Palencia CA.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Palencia CA
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Palencia CA come out ahead of Arandina on wins alone.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Arandina Clean Sheet 20%
Palencia CA Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arandina | Palencia CA |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 10 | 16 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Arandina vs Palencia CA
0:2
Nov 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CA vs Arandina
1:0
Mar 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CA vs Arandina
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Arandina vs Palencia CA
2:0
Aug 24, 2022 Club Friendly
Arandina vs Palencia CA
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arandina Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Palencia CA Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandez P.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gutierrez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arandina 32 / 100
Palencia CA 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arandina Palencia CA
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arandina scored in 71% of their last 31 games.
Palencia CA has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Arandina stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arandina VS Palencia CA
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Arandina
(Home) 03 Oct
Turegano
1 : 1 Arandina
26 Sept
Arandina
1 : 0 Calasanz de Soria
20 Sept
Salamanca CF UDS B
3 : 4 Arandina
12 Sept
Arandina
1 : 1 Almazan
05 Sept
Santa Marta Tormes
1 : 0 Arandina
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Arandina
1 : 0 Calasanz de Soria
12 Sept
Arandina
1 : 1 Almazan
02 May
Arandina
2 : 1 Mirandes B
26 Apr
Arandina
3 : 3 Bembibre
11 Apr
Arandina
3 : 1 La Virgen
Page 1 of 3
Palencia CA
(Away) 04 Oct
Palencia CA
3 : 0 Unionistas de Salamanca B
26 Sept
La Virgen
0 : 1 Palencia CA
20 Sept
Palencia CA
1 : 0 Guijuelo
12 Sept
Mansilles
1 : 1 Palencia CA
05 Sept
Palencia CA
0 : 2 Bembibre
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
La Virgen
0 : 1 Palencia CA
12 Sept
Mansilles
1 : 1 Palencia CA
15 Aug
CD Laredo
1 : 1 Palencia CA
17 May
Palencia CF
2 : 0 Palencia CA
10 May
Colegios Diocesanos
1 : 2 Palencia CA
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Tordesillas | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 62:24 | 78 |
| 2 | Guijuelo | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 54:26 | 70 |
| 3 | Palencia CA | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 48:24 | 68 |
| 4 | Palencia CF | 34 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 59:39 | 64 |
| 5 | Santa Marta Tormes | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 6 | Mansilles | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 31:27 | 57 |
| 7 | Almazan | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 49:38 | 48 |
| 8 | Mirandes B | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43:35 | 47 |
| 9 | La Virgen | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 31:37 | 44 |
| 10 | Villaralbo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 29:37 | 42 |
| 11 | Leonesa B | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 38:43 | 42 |
| 12 | Arandina | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:46 | 37 |
| 13 | Colegios Diocesanos | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 33:54 | 36 |
| 14 | Bembibre | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 38:52 | 34 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca B | 34 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 32:43 | 31 |
| 16 | CD Mojados | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 28:55 | 31 |
| 17 | Becerril | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 41:60 | 29 |
| 18 | Numancia B | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26:56 | 24 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
