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Arapongas vs Campo Mourao

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 3 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Diogo Carlos
23' Event
Pimentel B.
35' Event
Sato

AI Match Summary

The Paranaense 3 2024 game between Arapongas and Campo Mourao finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arapongas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Arapongas
35%
Draws
19%
Campo Mourao
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arapongas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Campo Mourao haven't matched Arapongas's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Arapongas's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Paranaense 3 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Arapongas Clean Sheet 15%
Campo Mourao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arapongas Campo Mourao
Matches Played 30 18
Wins 12 4
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.73 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 1.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2024 Paranaense 3
Campo Mourao vs Arapongas
1:2
Aug 25, 2024 Paranaense 3
Arapongas vs Campo Mourao
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arapongas Compare

Top Goalscorer Diogo Carlos
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sato
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Campo Mourao Compare

Top Goalscorer Pimentel B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.37
Avg xA / game 0.84

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arapongas 84 / 100
Campo Mourao 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arapongas Campo Mourao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arapongas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Campo Mourao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 18 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Arapongas scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Arapongas has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arapongas VS Campo Mourao
2.29 Goals Scored 1.88
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.38
86% Over 1.5 88%
71% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arapongas

(Home)
09 Nov
Arapongas
1 : 2
Batel
02 Nov
Batel
2 : 2
Arapongas
26 Oct
Arapongas
0 : 2
Iraty
20 Oct
Iraty
0 : 3
Arapongas
13 Oct
Arapongas
0 : 0
Associacao Portuguesa Londrinense
Page 1 of 6

Campo Mourao

(Away)
30 Aug
Uniao PR
2 : 0
Campo Mourao
16 Aug
Campo Mourao
1 : 1
Oeste Brasil
08 Aug
Campo Mourao
1 : 1
Uniao PR
26 Jul
Oeste Brasil
2 : 0
Campo Mourao
05 Oct
Oeste Brasil
2 : 0
Campo Mourao
Page 1 of 4

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Batel 8 5 1 2 14:8 16
2 Hope Internacional 8 3 3 2 7:4 12
3 Iraty 8 3 3 2 7:8 12
4 Araucaria 8 2 2 4 7:9 8
5 Prudentopolis 8 1 3 4 5:11 6
Promotion - Paranaense 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arapongas 8 6 1 1 24:5 19
2 Rolandia EC 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
3 Associacao Portuguesa Londrinense 8 3 2 3 8:8 11
4 Campo Mourao 8 3 1 4 18:15 10
5 CA Cambe 8 0 1 7 3:31 1
Promotion - Paranaense 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vere FC 6 4 0 2 11:8 12
2 Toledo 6 4 0 2 9:7 12
3 Oeste Brasil 6 3 0 3 10:5 9
4 Uniao PR 6 1 0 5 1:11 3
Promotion - Paranaense 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams