Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ararat Yerevan vs Sardarapat - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Armenia Armenia

Premier League Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sargsyan A.
20' Event
Vardanyan L.
28' Event
Petrosyan L.
Assist: Vardanyan L.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Ararat Yerevan and Sardarapat finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sardarapat.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Ararat Yerevan
20%
Draws
36%
Sardarapat
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ararat Yerevan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sardarapat come out ahead of Ararat Yerevan on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ararat Yerevan Clean Sheet 13%
Sardarapat Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ararat Yerevan Sardarapat
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 9 13
Draws 4 9
Losses 16 4
Goals Scored 1.14 2.04
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Premier League
Ararat Yerevan vs Sardarapat
1:2
Jul 19, 2026 Club Friendly
Ararat Yerevan vs Sardarapat
1:1
Feb 6, 2026 Club Friendly
Ararat Yerevan vs Sardarapat
5:1
Oct 30, 2025 Armenian Cup
Sardarapat vs Ararat Yerevan
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ararat Yerevan Compare

Top Goalscorer Haroyan V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Sardarapat Compare

Top Goalscorer Vardanyan L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Petrosyan L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ararat Yerevan 31 / 100
Sardarapat 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ararat Yerevan Sardarapat

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Ararat Yerevan found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Sardarapat has conceded goals in 65% of their last 26 outings.

Solid form: Ararat Yerevan remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ararat Yerevan VS Sardarapat
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ararat Yerevan

(Home)
03 Oct
Ararat Yerevan
0 : 4
Ararat-Armenia
20 Sept
Ararat Yerevan
1 : 0
Syunik
12 Sept
FC Gandzasar
0 : 2
Ararat Yerevan
05 Sept
Ararat Yerevan
0 : 1
Ararat-Armenia
30 Aug
Noah
4 : 0
Ararat Yerevan
Page 1 of 6

Sardarapat

(Away)
19 Sept
BKMA
1 : 1
Sardarapat
13 Sept
Sardarapat
1 : 1
Alashkert
09 Sept
Sardarapat
2 : 4
Pyunik Yerevan
06 Sept
Shirak Gyumri
2 : 0
Sardarapat
31 Aug
Sardarapat
3 : 1
Syunik
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Noah 8 8 0 0 21:5 24
2 Ararat-Armenia 8 6 1 1 17:8 19
3 Pyunik Yerevan 8 5 3 0 18:8 18
4 Alashkert 8 4 3 1 18:6 15
5 Sardarapat 8 3 3 2 14:12 12
6 Urartu 8 3 2 3 12:10 11
7 Shirak Gyumri 8 3 1 4 11:10 10
8 Ararat Yerevan 8 3 0 5 6:13 9
9 BKMA 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
10 Van 8 1 1 6 4:21 4
11 FC Gandzasar 8 1 0 7 8:20 3
12 Syunik 8 0 2 6 3:17 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027/2028 (Main)