Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araz PFK vs Kapaz

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup
Araz PFK Logo

Araz PFK

Thu, Dec 4, 2025
0 - 1
03:00 PM
Kapaz Logo

Kapaz

Our Tip

Match Events

115' Event
Ohori R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Araz PFK
15%
Draws
39%
Kapaz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Araz PFK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Araz PFK come out ahead of Kapaz on wins alone.
  • Araz PFK are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Araz PFK have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Araz PFK, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 19%
Kapaz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araz PFK Kapaz
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1.29 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Kapaz
2:0
Dec 9, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Kapaz
2:0
Dec 4, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Araz PFK vs Kapaz
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Araz PFK
0:2
Apr 13, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Araz PFK
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araz PFK Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kapaz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ohori R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araz PFK 40 / 100
Kapaz 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araz PFK Kapaz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araz PFK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Araz PFK scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Kapaz has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Araz PFK stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Kapaz lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Araz PFK VS Kapaz
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Araz PFK

(Home)
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1
Araz PFK
02 May
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Imisli FK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6

Kapaz

(Away)
23 May
Kapaz
0 : 1
Neftci Baku
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
08 May
Sabah Baku
0 : 1
Kapaz
02 May
Kapaz
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
26 Apr
Shamakhi
2 : 0
Kapaz
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail 0
Shamakhi 1
Goygol 0
Baku Sporting 2
Qarabag Agdam -
TBD -
Karvan 3
Sheki City 1
Lokbatan 2
Imisli FK 3
TBD -
Sabah Baku -
Gabala 5
Mingachevir 1
Cebrayil 0
Safa Baku 3
Shimal 0
Sahdag Qusar 2
Dinamo Baki 0
Turan 5
Araz PFK -
TBD -
Kapaz 6
Agstafa Gencleri 1
FC Khankendi 1
Difai Agsu 2
Zaqatala PFK 0
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK -
TBD -
Neftci Baku 6
MOIK Baku 2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi 1
Baku Sporting 0
Qarabag Agdam 3
Karvan 0
Imisli FK 1
Sabah Baku 2
Gabala 2
Safa Baku 1
Sahdag Qusar 1
Turan 2
Araz PFK 0
Kapaz 1
Difai Agsu 1
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK 1
Neftci Baku 0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi 3
Qarabag Agdam 4
Sabah Baku 4
Gabala 3
Turan 3
Kapaz 0
SumQayit FK 0
Zira FK 2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam 3
Sabah Baku 4
Turan 0
Zira FK 2
Final
Sabah Baku 2
Zira FK 1