Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araz PFK vs Sabail 2

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

First Division 2022/2023
Araz PFK Logo

Araz PFK

3 - 1
FT
Sabail 2 Logo

Sabail 2

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Aliyev O.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Qarayev T.
78' Event
Qurbanov B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Araz PFK in this First Division 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Araz PFK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Araz PFK
30%
Draws
62%
Sabail 2
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabail 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Araz PFK lately — more wins on the board than Sabail 2.
  • Model gives Sabail 2 a 62% chance of winning this.
  • Regular First Division 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 17%
Sabail 2 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araz PFK Sabail 2
Matches Played 42 35
Wins 19 16
Draws 7 5
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.6 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2023 I Liqa
Araz PFK vs Sabail 2
3:1
Dec 5, 2022 I Liqa
Sabail 2 vs Araz PFK
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Qurbanov B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aliyev O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Sabail 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Qarayev T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araz PFK 23 / 100
Sabail 2 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araz PFK Sabail 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabail 2 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araz PFK scored in 76% of their last 42 games.

Sabail 2 has conceded goals in 74% of their last 35 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Araz PFK remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Araz PFK VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Araz PFK

(Home)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2
Turan
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Sabah Baku
23 Aug
Neftci Baku
5 : 0
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 9

Sabail 2

(Away)
23 May
Mingachevir
1 : 1
Sabail 2
16 May
Sabail 2
0 : 0
MOIK Baku
08 May
Araz PFK
3 : 1
Sabail 2
04 May
Sabail 2
1 : 0
Gabala 2
24 Apr
Turan 2
0 : 2
Sabail 2
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Araz PFK 28 22 3 3 69:22 69
2 Neftci Baku 2 28 18 5 5 67:32 59
3 Turan 2 28 15 3 10 49:37 48
4 Sabail 2 28 13 5 10 46:44 44
5 Gabala 2 28 12 8 8 45:28 44
6 Zaqatala PFK 28 13 5 10 49:48 44
7 Kapaz 2 28 13 4 11 41:36 43
8 MOIK Baku 28 12 7 9 43:42 43
9 Lokbatan 28 12 5 11 30:23 41
10 Shamakhi 2 28 11 4 13 40:56 37
11 Qarabag Agdam 2 28 9 4 15 32:39 31
12 Zira FK 2 28 6 10 12 28:41 28
13 SumQayit FK 2 28 6 4 18 36:60 22
14 Mingachevir 28 5 5 18 29:51 20
15 Imisli FK 28 6 2 20 21:66 20
Promotion - Premier League 2023/2024 (Main)