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Arbroath vs Morton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Gayfield Park, Arbroath
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Constable S.
10' Event
Gillespie G.
(Penalty)
28'
Cupps C.

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Arbroath and Morton finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Morton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Arbroath
15%
Draws
64%
Morton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Morton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Arbroath carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Morton's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 12%
Morton Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arbroath Morton
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 10 5
Draws 5 4
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 0.9 0.74
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:2
Aug 22, 2026 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
2:1
Jan 23, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Morton
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Arbroath
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arbroath Compare

Top Goalscorer MacIntyre J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Morton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arbroath 10 / 100
Morton 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arbroath Morton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Arbroath found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Recent resilience: Arbroath stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arbroath VS Morton
0.38 Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arbroath

(Home)
03 Nov
Arbroath
1 : 0
Queen of the South
31 Oct
Arbroath
0 : 4
Raith
24 Oct
Livingston
1 : 0
Arbroath
17 Oct
Inverness
2 : 0
Arbroath
10 Oct
Arbroath
1 : 2
Morton
Page 1 of 7

Morton

(Away)
03 Nov
Morton
0 : 1
Kelty Hearts
31 Oct
Partick
2 : 3
Morton
17 Oct
Morton
2 : 0
Queen's Park
10 Oct
Arbroath
1 : 2
Morton
03 Oct
Morton
1 : 2
Raith
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Raith 14 7 4 3 20:9 25
2 Partick 13 7 4 2 17:7 25
3 Dunfermline 14 6 7 1 15:7 25
4 Stenhousemuir 13 7 2 4 13:12 23
5 Livingston 13 6 2 5 18:11 20
6 Inverness 13 5 4 4 17:16 19
7 Ayr 12 4 3 5 13:14 15
8 Arbroath 13 3 2 8 7:22 11
9 Morton 12 3 1 8 12:20 10
10 Queen's Park 13 2 1 10 8:22 7
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)