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Arenas Armilla vs Motril - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Aguilar Rosello P.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Arenas Armilla advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Arenas Armilla
30%
Draws
33%
Motril
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arenas Armilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arenas Armilla come out ahead of Motril on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Arenas Armilla's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Arenas Armilla have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Motril, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 68%
Motril Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenas Armilla Motril
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 13
Draws 9 11
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.32 1.45
Goals Conceded 1 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
May 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Motril
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Motril
0:2
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Motril
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar Rosello P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Motril Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Armilla 50 / 100
Motril 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenas Armilla Motril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arenas Armilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenas Armilla scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Arenas Armilla stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Motril has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Arenas Armilla VS Motril
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenas Armilla

(Home)
04 Oct
Torre del Mar
0 : 1
Arenas Armilla
27 Sept
Arenas Armilla
3 : 3
Huetor Vega
20 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2
Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 7

Motril

(Away)
04 Oct
UD San Pedro
2 : 3
Motril
27 Sept
Motril
2 : 0
CD Alhaurino
20 Sept
Malaga Juniors
1 : 2
Motril
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2
Recreativo Huelva
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Motril 1
Churriana de la Vega 1
Torre del Mar 0
Arenas Armilla 2
Final
Motril 1
Arenas Armilla 2