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Arenas Armilla vs Rincon

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Capitan P.
23' Event
Capitan P.
84' Event
Utrilla A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 game between Arenas Armilla and Rincon finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rincon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Arenas Armilla
20%
Draws
42%
Rincon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Rincon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Arenas Armilla carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 20%
Rincon Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenas Armilla Rincon
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 6
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.23 0.87
Goals Conceded 1 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Rincon
1:2
Jan 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Rincon vs Arenas Armilla
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Utrilla A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Rincon Compare

Top Goalscorer Capitan P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Armilla 31 / 100
Rincon 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenas Armilla Rincon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arenas Armilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rincon let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Arenas Armilla found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Arenas Armilla stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arenas Armilla VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenas Armilla

(Home)
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2
Arenas Armilla
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2
Arenas Armilla
14 Jun
Arenas Armilla
1 : 1
Pena Deportiva
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 7

Rincon

(Away)
17 Aug
Rincon
0 : 1
El Palo
10 May
Rincon
1 : 0
Motril
05 May
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Rincon
01 May
Rincon
0 : 3
Huetor Tajar
27 Apr
Arenas Armilla
1 : 2
Rincon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Torremolinos 34 23 7 4 65:23 76
2 Jaen 34 22 7 5 66:28 73
3 Malaga B 34 19 10 5 54:20 67
4 Almeria B 34 19 10 5 75:28 67
5 Torre del Mar 34 18 8 8 44:30 62
6 Motril 34 13 11 10 36:23 50
7 Arenas Armilla 34 14 6 14 34:39 48
8 CP Almeria 34 11 13 10 39:37 46
9 Huetor Vega 34 13 7 14 40:41 46
10 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 11 10 13 46:46 43
11 Mancha 34 9 12 13 41:43 39
12 CD Torreperogil 34 9 11 14 32:41 38
13 Ejido 34 7 16 11 30:41 37
14 Huetor Tajar 34 7 14 13 25:39 35
15 Malaga Juniors 34 7 12 15 27:47 33
16 Maracena 34 6 13 15 29:50 31
17 Rincon 34 6 10 18 30:54 28
18 Atletico Melilla 34 0 7 27 18:101 4
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 (Play Offs)