Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 3 2011/2012

Guarnizo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guarnizo is highly favored to claim all three points on their visit to Arenas De Frajanas, backed by a win probability of 59%. Arenas De Frajanas averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded in recent matches. Guarnizo shows a form average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Arenas De Frajanas, 3 wins for Guarnizo, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 03.03.12 ended in a 0:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.97 for Arenas De Frajanas and 1.24 for Guarnizo, suggesting the primary value lies in the Guarnizo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%

Arenas De Frajanas

17%

Draws

59%

Guarnizo

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Guarnizo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Arenas De Frajanas picked up more points recently compared to Guarnizo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.24 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Arenas De Frajanas Clean Sheet 19%

Guarnizo Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arenas De Frajanas	Guarnizo
Matches Played	30	39
Wins	7	23
Draws	6	11
Losses	17	5
Goals Scored	0.9	1.41
Goals Conceded	1.7	0.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

03.03.12 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Arenas De Frajanas vs Guarnizo

Possession: 42% - 57% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

08.10.11 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Guarnizo vs Arenas De Frajanas

Possession: 56% - 43% Cards: 1 - 4

3:0

13.03.11 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Guarnizo vs Arenas De Frajanas

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 1 - 4

2:0

23.10.10 Tercera RFEF - Group 3

Arenas De Frajanas vs Guarnizo

Possession: 50% - 46% Cards: 0 - 2

3:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Arenas De Frajanas

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Guarnizo

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas De Frajanas 25 / 100

Guarnizo 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arenas De Frajanas Guarnizo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarnizo Win (2)

Secondary Pick Guarnizo & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +50%

6.25

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Guarnizo will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Arenas De Frajanas 26%

Guarnizo 47%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Arenas De Frajanas will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Guarnizo's early runs.

Arenas De Frajanas 23%

Guarnizo 62%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Guarnizo to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Arenas De Frajanas tries to push forward.

Arenas De Frajanas 24%

Guarnizo 59%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Guarnizo increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Arenas De Frajanas 25%

Guarnizo 56%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Arenas De Frajanas's defense, opening up opportunities for Guarnizo's forward line.

Arenas De Frajanas 22%

Guarnizo 65%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Guarnizo to manage the closing stages, while Arenas De Frajanas searches for late drama.

Arenas De Frajanas 28%

Guarnizo 68%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arenas De Frajanas attacking → ← attacking Guarnizo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenas De Frajanas have found the net in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Guarnizo have conceded at least one goal in 44% of their last 39 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.75 goals per match.

Arenas De Frajanas remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Guarnizo suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 80

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SD Noja	38	27	6	5	102:30	87
2	CD Laredo	38	26	7	5	85:40	85
3	Rayo Cantabria	38	22	12	4	91:30	78
4	Cayon CD	38	23	9	6	58:36	78
5	CD Tropezon	38	23	6	9	84:43	75
6	UM Escobedo	38	20	8	10	63:50	68
7	CD Siete Villas	38	19	8	11	61:49	65
8	Dep. Rayo Cantabria (Inactive)	38	16	11	11	75:53	59
9	Barreda Balompie	38	13	11	14	58:60	50
10	Castro	38	14	6	18	62:63	48
11	Guarnizo	38	11	12	15	59:58	45
12	Vimenor	38	13	6	19	45:65	45
13	Pontejos	38	10	11	17	50:65	41
14	Ribamontan al Mar	38	10	10	18	41:71	40
15	Bezana	38	9	11	18	43:66	38
16	Atletico Albericia	38	9	11	18	50:69	38
17	San Martin Arena	38	10	4	24	44:68	34
18	Buelna	38	8	9	21	36:76	33
19	CD Barquereno	38	7	8	23	35:72	29
20	Arenas De Frajanas	38	5	4	29	30:108	19