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Aris Limassol vs APOEL - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Balogun L. In: Fi Akamba C.
Out: Balogun L.
51'
Dalcio
55' Event
Kastanos G.

AI Match Summary

Aris Limassol in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aris Limassol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Aris Limassol
30%
Draws
29%
APOEL
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aris Limassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • APOEL have won more games recently than Aris Limassol.
  • Aris Limassol are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Cyprus League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • APOEL have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Aris Limassol Clean Sheet 10%
APOEL Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aris Limassol APOEL
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.5 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs APOEL
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 Cyprus League
APOEL vs Aris Limassol
2:1
Mar 15, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs APOEL
1:2
Dec 7, 2025 Cyprus League
APOEL vs Aris Limassol
2:0
Apr 22, 2025 Cyprus League
APOEL vs Aris Limassol
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aris Limassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Kastanos G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

APOEL Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aris Limassol 34 / 100
APOEL 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aris Limassol APOEL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

APOEL has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Aris Limassol scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Aris Limassol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aris Limassol VS APOEL
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Aris Limassol

(Home)
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
26 Sept
Aris Limassol
4 : 2
Omonia 29th May
20 Sept
Aris Limassol
0 : 0
Karmiotissa
14 Sept
Krasava
0 : 1
Aris Limassol
07 Sept
Aris Limassol
1 : 4
Omonia
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APOEL

(Away)
19 Sept
Apollon Limassol
2 : 2
APOEL
12 Sept
Anorthosis
2 : 1
APOEL
06 Sept
APOEL
6 : 0
AEL Limassol
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
22 Aug
Ol. Nicosia
3 : 3
APOEL
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)