Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arosa SC vs Arzua

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Fernandez S. G.
82'

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 game between Arosa SC and Arzua finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arosa SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Arosa SC
20%
Draws
30%
Arzua
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arosa SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Arzua haven't matched Arosa SC's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Arosa SC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Arosa SC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Arosa SC Clean Sheet 68%
Arzua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arosa SC Arzua
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 5 21
Goals Scored 1.53 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Arzua
1:0
Sep 24, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Arosa SC
0:0
Feb 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Arzua
1:0
Oct 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Arosa SC
0:3
Feb 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Arosa SC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arosa SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez S. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Arzua Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arosa SC 50 / 100
Arzua 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arosa SC Arzua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arosa SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arosa SC found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Arzua's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Arosa SC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Arzua registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arosa SC VS Arzua
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arosa SC

(Home)
27 Sept
Arosa SC
2 : 5
Alaves B
19 Sept
Basconia
2 : 2
Arosa SC
13 Sept
Arosa SC
0 : 4
Gernika Club
06 Sept
Amorebieta
2 : 2
Arosa SC
01 Aug
Arosa SC
3 : 1
Pontevedra
Page 1 of 6

Arzua

(Away)
26 Aug
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
11 May
Arzua
1 : 0
Silva SD
05 May
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
01 May
Arzua
1 : 2
Lugo B
27 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
2 : 0
Arzua
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)