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Arouca vs Maritimo

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arouca in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arouca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Arouca
35%
Draws
38%
Maritimo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maritimo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Arouca haven't matched Maritimo's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Arouca Clean Sheet 20%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arouca Maritimo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 16
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.3 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Arouca vs Maritimo
4:1
Apr 8, 2023 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Maritimo
1:0
Oct 23, 2022 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Arouca
1:1
Feb 14, 2022 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Maritimo
0:3
Sep 13, 2021 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Arouca
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arouca 32 / 100
Maritimo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arouca Maritimo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arouca scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Arouca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Maritimo conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Arouca VS Maritimo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arouca

(Home)
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1
Arouca
01 Aug
Lusitania FC
0 : 2
Arouca
25 Jul
Santa Clara
3 : 0
Arouca
22 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0
Arouca
18 Jul
Feirense
0 : 0
Arouca
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Maritimo

(Away)
08 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Casa Pia
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Nacional
29 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 1
Estrela Calheta
25 Jul
Maritimo
0 : 0
Machico
22 Jul
Maritimo
2 : 0
Camacha
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