Sport Picks
Arouca vs Moreirense
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca 
Match Events
13'
13'
Maracas
16'
16'
Sanchez J.
23'
23'
Maracas
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
Arouca in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arouca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Moreirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Arouca lately — more wins on the board than Moreirense.
- 29% — that's where the model lands on Arouca taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Arouca Clean Sheet 68%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Moreirense
4:0
Mar 21, 2026 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Arouca
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Moreirense
0:2
Jan 24, 2025 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Moreirense
1:0
Aug 18, 2024 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Arouca
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arouca Compare
Top Goalscorer Fontan J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barbero I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Moreirense Compare
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arouca 95 / 100
Moreirense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arouca Moreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arouca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arouca found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Moreirense conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Arouca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Arouca VS Moreirense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Arouca
(Home) 19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0 Arouca
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1 Maritimo
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1 Maritimo
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
16 May
Arouca
3 : 1 Tondela
02 May
Arouca
2 : 2 Santa Clara
Page 1 of 3
Moreirense
(Away) 20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
