Sport Picks
Match Events
20'
20'
Fukui T.
39'
39'
Fayed O.
41'
41'
Santana C.
AI Match Summary
Arouca in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arouca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arouca
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Arouca have won more games recently than Tondela.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Arouca taking it.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Arouca Clean Sheet 20%
Tondela Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arouca | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Tondela
3:1
Jan 3, 2026 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Arouca
3:1
Jul 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Arouca vs Tondela
0:2
Jul 26, 2024 Club Friendly
Arouca vs Tondela
0:0
Mar 19, 2022 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Arouca
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arouca Compare
Top Goalscorer Fukui T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Trezza A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Tondela Compare
Top Goalscorer Rony Lopes
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arouca 85 / 100
Tondela 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arouca Tondela
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arouca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arouca's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Tondela has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Arouca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arouca VS Tondela
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Arouca
(Home) 16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Lusitania FC
0 : 2 Arouca
25 Jul
Santa Clara
3 : 0 Arouca
22 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0 Arouca
Page 1 of 6
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
16 May
Arouca
3 : 1 Tondela
02 May
Arouca
2 : 2 Santa Clara
19 Apr
Arouca
1 : 0 Estrela da Amadora
06 Apr
Arouca
3 : 2 Estoril
Page 1 of 3
Tondela
(Away) 16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0 Tondela
08 Aug
Tondela
2 : 1 Amarante FC
01 Aug
Rio Ave
3 : 1 Tondela
29 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1 Sao Joao de Ver
25 Jul
Tondela
1 : 2 Beira Mar
Page 1 of 6
16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0 Tondela
01 Aug
Rio Ave
3 : 1 Tondela
25 Jul
Famalicao
1 : 0 Tondela
16 May
Arouca
3 : 1 Tondela
03 May
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Tondela
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
